What History Of First-Round QBs Could Mean For Patriots Draft

The NFL draft is a time for optimism, although it can highlight just how little anyone knows about the top prospects.

New England Patriots supporters are seeing that firsthand with the discourse around the No. 3 pick. Are Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye franchise quarterbacks? Well, it depends on who you ask. Is J.J. McCarthy a legit top-five pick? That depends on what traits you value and think translate to the next level.

Everyone has all the answers before the draft, but until these guys play in the NFL, it’s truly anyone’s guess. That’s why historical analysis could help give insight into whether the Patriots should draft a QB up top or trade back.

We’ll take a look back at the quarterbacks selected in the first round of the last 10 drafts and try to determine a success rate. Let’s first take a look at the pool we’re analyzing.

2014: Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, Teddy Bridgewater

2015: Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota

2016: Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Paxton Lynch

2017: Mitchell Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson

2018: Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Josh Rosen, Lamar Jackson

2019: Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins

2020: Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love

2021: Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Mac Jones

2022: Kenny Pickett

2023: Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson

Remember when the Denver Broncos drafted Lynch in the first round? If John Elway weren’t a Hall of Famer, that pick would have gotten him fired. But it is indicative of how much of a crap shoot the NFL draft is.

So how are we defining success? We’ll use a combination of earning a second contract with the team you were drafted by, winning a playoff game and winning an NFL award or being named to a Pro Bowl or All-Pro team.

Largely by those metrics, here are the clear hits:

Goff
Mahomes
Mayfield
Allen
Jackson
Murray
Burrow
Tagovailoa
Herbert
Love
Lawrence
Stroud

Young and Richardson endured bumpy roads in their first seasons, but they still have a chance to hit, and Fields does, too.

So 13 out of 34 picks gives us a 38% hit rate on first-round quarterbacks. That’s nothing to boast about, but it’s not something to scoff at either. Teams over the past 10 years essentially have a better than one-in-three chance to land a franchise quarterback. Another way to look at that: There might be just one team that hits on a QB in the top three of this draft, and the Patriots would have the final selection of that trio.

But New England could hope for a draft class like 2020 where all the quarterbacks end up being a franchise guy to some degree.

Director of scouting Eliot Wolf pointed out at his NFL Scouting Combine news conference that most franchise quarterbacks tend to be selected in the first round, and the last 10 drafts largely prove the de facto general manager correct. There is risk of failure, but selecting a signal-caller at No. 3 could be worth it to help build a solid foundation for the franchise.