Fantasy Football: How Does Ezekiel Elliott’s Suspension Affect Draft Stock?
Need another reason not to hold your fantasy football draft in early August?
Every year, injuries, trades and suspensions occur during training camp and the NFL preseason that shake up the fantasy landscape. But this year’s big news was the equivalent of an earthquake: Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott was suspended six regular season games under the league’s personal conduct policy.
Elliott was a consensus first-round pick and a top-three overall selection in many mock drafts, so this is a major development. The 22-year-old plans to appeal his suspension, but if it holds, he won’t be eligible to return until Week 8, since Dallas has a Week 6 bye.
Assuming Elliott will miss six games — and leaving out any ethical issues related to his actions — how does his suspension affect his draft stock? Here are our updated positional and overall rankings for Elliott, as well as a quick look at his replacement, backup Darren McFadden.
New positional ranking: No. 11 running back
Previously the No. 3 back on our board, Elliott drops just below Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley on our list. The Ohio State product led the NFL in rushing as a rookie, and there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be just as productive when he returns to the field this season — in fact, him missing several games could assuage concerns he’s receiving too heavy of a workload early in his career. But we can’t justify ranking Elliott any higher, considering he’ll likely only get eight or nine chances to contribute to your fantasy team, depending on when your playoffs start.
New overall ranking: No. 24 player
Elliott shouldn’t be a first-round pick in any league if he’s not playing until Week 8. Plain and simple. Given Elliott’s immense talent and big-name draw — he finished second among all RBs in fantasy points last season behind David Johnson, after all — there’s a chance someone in your league snags him in Round 2. But we’d recommend waiting until the third round to use a pick on Elliott, whose fantasy production could be cut in half this season.
If you do draft Elliott, don’t wait too much longer to target McFadden, who is expected to be the Cowboys’ lead running back in Elliott’s absence ahead of Alfred Morris. The veteran running back turns 30 on Aug. 27, so don’t expect him to rush for 100 yards per game. But McFadden averaged 4.6 yards per rush behind Dallas’ elite offensive line in 2015, and he should have enough in the tank to be a solid RB2 until Elliott’s return.
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Thumbnail photo via Jayne Kamin-Oncea/USA TODAY Sports Images
