Red Sox Odds: Boston Continues To Rise In Pennant, World Series Pools
The Sox continue to gain more respect at the window
It will never not be fun to remind Las Vegas bookmakers when they're wrong. And when it comes to the Boston Red Sox, there's not a team in baseball the guys behind the counter were more wrong on.
Most sportsbooks posted season win totals of "Over" or "Under" 79 or 80 wins for the Sox. Heading into Wednesday's game against the Los Angeles Angeles, Boston was 54-33 in the standings. If the Red Sox split the remaining games on the schedule, they'll still win 91.
The crazier opening numbers were in the preseason future markets for the division, pennant and World Series. Boston was as high as 20-to-1 to win the American League East, 30-to-1 to win the American League and 70-to-1 to win the whole enchilada.
Betting odds of 20-to-1 imply less than 5 percent probability, while 70-to-1 implies just above a 1 percent chance. So, bookmakers didn't expect the Red Sox to contend for anything given the math.
We've talked at length about how Boston's division number has been on the move. The price has shifted from +450 six weeks ago to a drastically more expensive -200 in the present. So, a $100 bet won you $450 back in late May, but now you have to lay $200 to win $100.
Sheesh.
Even if the Red Sox hit a rough patch and have a few bad weeks, their future numbers won't balloon that much. That's because of all the liability that has built up over the last three months. Bookmakers had to slash all those bloated prices because bettors began to realize that the Sox are contenders.
"There's definitely some Red Sox regression coming," one professional bettor told NESN. "The odds are against them playing 62 percent baseball the rest of the way. But they've proven that they're one of the best teams in the league and they're doing it without their best starting pitcher. That offense just clobbers the baseball."
True bookmaker respect is reflected in the pennant and World Series markets. After all, there are down divisions every single year in the majors. But when a team's odds shorten drastically in the league and title markets, that's when you know the betting market is pretty serious.
Only the Houston Astros and Chicago White Sox have better odds to win the American League. Houston is the odds-on favorite with a consensus average of +300 ($100 wins $300). Chicago is on the two-line at +330, followed closely by Boston around +500.
The Red Sox are as low as +470 and as high as +700 in the market. Always be shopping.
As for the World Series market, only five teams have shorter consensus odds than Boston (+1200): the Los Angeles Dodgers (+375), Astros (+600), San Diego Padres (+750), White Sox (+800) and New York Mets (+1000).
And Baseball Reference says there's a 95 percent chance Boston makes the playoffs.
Numbers don't lie, and they also show respect. Those sky-high preseason future prices are long gone due to the Red Sox playing good baseball and rising to the top of the AL East standings.
It's all a worthy reminder that Boston is way better than the books expected.
