NFL Odds: Biggest Betting Overreactions After Week 1 Of 2021 Season
Bookmakers always bake perception into their betting lines
Overreactions are often the norm after the first weekend of the NFL season.
The Arizona Cardinals are going to win Super Bowl LVI and the lowly Atlanta Falcons will be the first team ever to finish 0-17. Matthew Stafford is a surefire MVP candidate, while Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are in lots of trouble.
This is a fun exercise, isn't it?
While there might be a little truth to some of those things, it's paramount that you don't completely overreact to everything you saw in one week of NFL games. And always understand that bookmakers are literally paid to build these overreactions and perceptions into the betting lines.
So, when the Denver Broncos pummel the New York Giants 27-13 as a three-point road favorite, bookmakers are well aware that the betting public will look to back Denver in Week 2 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. That betting line has already been adjusted from Denver -3 on the lookahead line to Denver -6. It's easily the biggest adjustment on the entire board.
Are you ready to plug your nose and take six points with Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars?
The Falcons are catching 2.5 extra points on the road against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Seattle Seahawks are two points richer against the Tennessee Titans and even rookie quarterback Mac Jones and the New England Patriots earned respect from the guys behind the counter. The Pats were 3.5-point road favorites against the New York Jets last week and that number is now as high as New England -5.
Don't ever think that the sportsbooks don't make the necessary adjustments.
Other notable NFL betting nuggets:
-- The Miami Dolphins winning outright in Foxboro was a great decision for the sportsbooks. The Patriots were bet up from -1.5 to -3.5 and one shop even moved to Pats -4 around kickoff.
"It's not often that you see a team with a rookie quarterback laying 3.5 in the season opener," one professional bettor told NESN on Sunday.
-- Sometimes, a lack of an adjustment can tell a story, too. Despite losing 38-3 to the New Orleans Saints, the Packers are still laying big chalk to the Detroit Lions next Monday night. The lookahead number and the current number are the exact same: Packers -10.5 at Lambeau Field. Plenty of people will be circling Green Bay in a prototypical bounce-back spot against a horrendous team.
-- Bookmakers are expecting to see offensive fireworks in the 49ers-Eagles game at Philadelphia. That lookahead total was O/U 46 and the current total is already up to 50. That'll happen when San Francisco scores 41 and Philadelphia puts up 32. Both teams have exceptional speed and play with lots of pace. There's a good chance that total gets even higher as the weekend nears.
-- Stafford now has the second-shortest MVP betting odds (+800) at DraftKings. The only player with shorter odds is Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (+550).
-- Underdogs went 11-4 ATS in the first 15 games with eight outright upsets.
