Weekend Football Picks: Take Michigan To Cover Against Michigan State

Last weekend’s football picks swept the board. The Bengals, Buccaneers, Alabama, Ole Miss and Oregon all came home for us in a much-welcomed 5-0 on Saturday and Sunday.

If you’re new around these parts, this is not a place where you’ll find a million betting picks. I isolate the picks I really, really like and roll with those. Nothing more, nothing less. Don’t expect to see any five-team parlays or “locks” on primetime games, either.

Let’s go to work.

NFL Survivor League: Three Teams To Pick (And Avoid) Entering Week 8

Oct 27, 2021

Michigan Wolverines (-4, O/U 50.5) at Michigan State Spartans
Michigan -4

These two undefeated Big Ten teams meet Saturday in East Lansing. Michigan State is getting tons of respect in the betting market, but the line feels a little short. I spoke to a couple of Las Vegas bookmakers who said the true line probably is closer to Michigan -7 and I tend to agree. You could argue that Michigan State doesn’t have an impressive win on their schedule. The Wolverines’ power running attack will grind Sparty down and allow the maize and blue to pull away in the second half.

Texas Tech Raiders at Oklahoma Sooners (-19, O/U 67)
Oklahoma -19

This will be the first time all season I’ve picked Oklahoma. The Sooners (3-5 ATS) haven’t been the greatest cover team in the world, but I really like them to expose an overvalued Texas Tech team that just fired its head coach. Freshman quarterback Caleb Williams struggled in his first career road start last Saturday in Lawrence, but that doesn’t bother me one bit. Things will be a lot easier back home in Norman against a Red Raiders squad that will not be able to stop the run. Lay the points.

Ole Miss Rebels at Auburn Tigers (-3, O/U 66)
Ole Miss +3

I can’t get enough of Ole Miss quarterback Matt Corral. He’s the guy you want with the ball with the game on the line in the fourth quarter. Corral leads a Rebels offense that is fifth in the country in rushing and total yards and seventh in points per game. They attack you in so many different ways with endless speed and tempo that will be very tough for Auburn to match blow for blow. And I’ve never been a fan of Bo Nix in big games.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (-4, O/U 42)
Browns -4

The Browns are getting healthier by the minute. Baker Mayfield is set to start at quarterback and Nick Chubb, Jack Conklin, JC Tretter and Jarvis Landry all return for the Cleveland offense. But really, this handicap is about defense. The Browns’ defensive front has been extremely good this season at pressuring the pocket and their 20 sacks are second-most in the league. That doesn’t bode well for 39-year-old Ben Roethlisberger and his mediocre offensive line. I like the home team by a touchdown.

Sam’s Picks
Michigan -4
Oklahoma -19
Ole Miss +3
Browns -4

RECORD: (67-61, +0.2)