NBA Betting Guide for Tuesday, December 21: Target The Over In Madison Square Garden
We successfully backed the 76ers as 3.5-point underdogs, and they ended up winning the game outright. That gives us four winners from our past five games heading into the festive season. The NBA has five games on the schedule for Tuesday, and I’m not entirely impressed with any sides on the card.
As a result, I’ll target the total in a matchup between the Pistons and Knicks.
While there aren’t a lot of positives to take away from the Pistons’ 5-24 season, the reality is they’ve been playing a bit better of late. I know Detroit’s won just once in its past ten games, but it’s scored at least 100 points in eight games during that span. Keep in mind that the Pistons rank 29th in offensive efficiency with 98.4 points per 100 possessions for the season. That means they’re playing better, at least offensively, despite the 1-9 record over a ten-game period.
However, we’re not looking for the Pistons to win the game. We just need them to put up enough points to help us cash the over.
The good news for over bettors is that neither team appears to be too committed to their defensive responsibilities. Detroit ranks 20th in allowing opponents 107 points per 100 possessions, while New York is 23rd in this category with 107.6 points per 100 possessions.
I suspect the Pistons are an opponent the Knicks will fancy playing against if neither side offers much defensively. Detroit’s tempo should also help with the scoring as it ranks in the top half of the league with 102 possessions per game. I think it’s more likely that they’ll get the Knicks to play at their pace — particularly if Detroit has some early success scoring the basketball. New York’s instinct isn’t to buckle down defensively but rather to hoist up more three-point shots. On average, New York’s attempting seven more three-pointers per game this season compared to last year. That’s resulted in almost two more three-point field goals per game (13.4), and that number’s up to 15.3 over their past three contests.
Although this total seems short at 208, I like the idea of having a bit more security by playing the alternate total of 206.5 at -128 odds.
Pick: Over 206.5 (-128)
All NBA predictions and picks are courtesy of SportsGrid.
