NFL Week 17 Picks: Playoff Spots Hang In Balance On New Year’s Weekend

A new year is upon us, but there’s still plenty of unfinished business as Week 17 of the 2021 NFL season begins.

The playoff picture is slowly coming into focus, but the early returns on the first season of the 18-week schedule have to be looked at as a success in league offices. Playoff spots in both conferences are still very much up in the air, and there’s no clear-cut favorite to win Super Bowl LVI.

Granted, some of that is because of the relative uncertainty facing the entire league (mainly COVID-19), but it’s obvious parity is one of the biggest tenets of the current campaign.

That continues to make predicting what happens in these games next to impossible. Still, that’s a task NESN.com’s Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle are happy to tackle on a weekly basis with their against-the-spread picks for every game.

The Spread Podcast | NFL Playoff Picture; Previewing Week 17 | Ep. 40

Dec 28, 2021

Before they reveal their Week 17 selections, here’s how they fared last week.

Now, here are their Week 17 picks, with lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.

SUNDAY, JAN. 2

Jacksonville Jaguars at (-16) New England Patriots, 1 p.m.
Mike: Jaguars. It’s physically uncomfortable to take the Jaguars against the Patriots, but that is so many points for a New England team that is starting to show some cracks to cover.
Ricky: Jaguars. Will I be surprised if the Patriots destroy an awful team, much like they did during their seven-game winning streak, and get the train back on the tracks ahead of a potentially crucial Week 18 matchup with the Dolphins? Nope. But New England’s offense has been too inconsistent of late.

(-5) Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m.
Mike: Chiefs. It’s still a little too early to buy all the way in on Cincinnati. As good as Joe Burrow has been, he leads the NFL in fourth-quarter interception rate and red-zone interception rate. Against a surging Chiefs team, you can’t have those sorts of back-breaking mistakes.
Ricky: Chiefs. As Football Outsiders pointed out this week, Burrow has faced the softest pass defenses of any quarterback in 2021. That includes last week, when the Bengals took advantage of a depleted Ravens defense that entered the game ranked 30th in pass DVOA, allowing 8.2 yards per attempt and 13 yards per completion (both last in the NFL). The Chiefs will present a much tougher challenge.

(-12.5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bucs. I actually like Tampa more if Bruce Arians isn’t back from COVID-19 for this one, because I think Tom Brady might really cut it loose — even without a full stable of weapons — to send some sort of message without his head coach. Facing a putrid Jets defense helps, too.
Ricky: Bucs. Brady made a habit of beating up on the Jets during his time with the Patriots. No reason to think that trend ends this week against a New York defense ranked dead-last in total DVOA.

Atlanta Falcons at (-14) Buffalo Bills, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bills. This is either a classic letdown spot or Buffalo proves it has regained its mojo and lays down the hammer. I’m leaning toward the latter, especially given the Falcons’ problems protecting Matt Ryan.
Ricky: Bills. Have said this multiple weeks in a row: The Falcons barely beat bad teams and get demolished by good teams. There’s really no in-between, and the Bills fall under the latter category.

(-3.5) Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m.
Mike: Ravens. Tough little scheduling spot here for the Rams, who were in Minnesota last week and now have to travel to Baltimore. Baltimore might have Lamar Jackson back in a limited role, and John Harbaugh will likely be eager to prove last week’s blowout in Cincinnati was an aberration.
Ricky: Ravens. Jackson is limping around, prolonging Baltimore’s QB uncertainty, and the Ravens’ secondary basically is nonexistent at this point. Yet, I still can’t shake the Ravens in a home underdog role.

Miami Dolphins at (-3) Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m.
Mike: Titans. It’s going to be cold in Nashville on Sunday with a chance for rain and snow — on a grass field, mind you, that will host a college game Thursday. Tua Tagovailoa has played in the “cold” (45 degrees or cooler) twice in his NFL career, and he’s played poorly in two losses. Miami’s run of good fortune looks to be over.
Ricky: Titans. Just not sure Miami’s offense will do enough. Also, consider the quarterbacks the Dolphins have beaten during their seven-game winning streak: Lamar Jackson, Tyrod Taylor, Joe Flacco, Cam Newton, Mike Glennon, Zach Wilson and Ian Book. The first name on that list, obviously, is the lone impressive victory. And while Ryan Tannehill isn’t exactly a world-beater, Tennessee’s offense received a huge boost last week with the return of A.J. Brown, who’s capable of moving the sticks.

(-3.5) Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Football Team, 1 p.m.
Mike: Football Team. Just like Monday night’s Dolphins-Saints line smelled fishy in Week 16, this one doesn’t seem right. It feels like Philly should be a much bigger favorite, so I’m gonna blindly go the other way for reasons I can’t fully explain.
Ricky: Football Team. I’ll die on that hill with you, Mike. The Eagles are coming off three straight double-digit wins, while Washington has suffered three consecutive losses, including a 42-point defeat in Week 16. So, let’s zig when everyone else zags. Why not? After all, WFT still is a divisional opponent catching more than a field goal at home.

New York Giants at (-6.5) Chicago Bears, 1 p.m.
Mike: Bears. Chicago looks intent on playing hard for Matt Nagy in what should be his final few weeks as boss. The Bears have played bad teams hard all season, and the Giants certainly qualify here.
Ricky: Giants. The G-Men have lost four straight, by an average margin of 16.5 points, largely because their offense is brutal. But those losses came against some decent competition (Dolphins, Chargers, Cowboys and Eagles). And the Bears lost eight of nine before beating the Seahawks 25-24 last week, with their lone win being a two-point victory over the Lions. This should be an ugly game with little scoring.

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Dec 29, 2021

Houston Texans at (-13) San Francisco 49ers, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Texans. Houston coach David Culley deserves a ton of credit for winning four games with this roster. The Texans actually have a middle-of-the-pack defense (18th, DVOA), and that might be enough to keep it within the number against Trey Lance in his second career start.
Ricky: Texans. Lance might be good. But I need to see it first. Plus, the Texans are feisty. And don’t you think Davis Mills will be motivated to prove he deserves more recognition among the rookie QBs?

Denver Broncos at (-5) Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05 p.m.
Mike: Broncos. If Denver just runs all day, it should be in a good spot against a horrific Chargers rush defense that has the NFL’s fifth-worst tackle rate while allowing a league-worst 5.4 yards per carry on second down, which makes getting off the field on third down extremely difficult. Not only that, but the Broncos rank sixth as a team in yards after contact per rush.
Ricky: Chargers. All signs point to Drew Lock starting again at quarterback for the Broncos, who managed just 158 total yards last week against the Raiders. That, coupled with the Chargers returning a few key players, including running back Austin Ekeler, is enough to bank on an LA cover.

Arizona Cardinals at (-5.5) Dallas Cowboys, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Cowboys. The whole world is going to be on the Cowboys, but whatever. Arizona is a mess amid another Kliff Kingsbury late-season fade, and Dallas’ balanced offensive attack is a major problem for a Cardinals defense that looked OK last week in large part because the Colts were so banged up.
Ricky: Cardinals. Arizona is fighting quicksand right now, but I’ll roll the dice for two reasons: 1) There’s still enough talent on the Cardinals’ roster to hang with most teams, so long as they get out of their own way. And 2) The spot. The Cards are 7-1 ATS on the road this season. They’re 5-0 ATS as an underdog.

Detroit Lions at (-7) Seattle Seahawks, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Lions. I thought Seattle was capable of putting together professional efforts with nothing to play for, and I was wrong, as evidenced by last week. Meanwhile, Detroit keeps playing hard, making this spread too big.
Ricky: Lions. Good teams win. Great teams cover. Not sure that really applies to the Lions, who have just two straight-up victories through 15 games, but their 10-5 ATS mark is tied for third-best in the NFL, trailing only the Cowboys (12-3) and Packers (11-4).

Carolina Panthers at (-6.5) New Orleans Saints, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Saints. Where exactly does the Carolina offense come from this week? Or any week, really, come to think of it.
Ricky: Saints. The good news for Carolina? Sam Darnold will start over Cam Newton this week. The bad news? He stinks, too.

Minnesota Vikings at (-6.5) Green Bay Packers, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Vikings. It’s going to be frigid — like, painfully cold — Sunday night in Green Bay. Tackling Dalvin Cook is difficult at room temperature but should be even more treacherous in this weather. Minnesota should be able to keep this close, even if it can’t pull the outright upset.
Ricky: Packers. Aaron Rodgers vs. Kirk Cousins in primetime is quite a mismatch given their respective track records. Mix in a little Lambeau Field, with single-digit temperatures, and this seems like a good opportunity for Green Bay to flex its muscle en route to locking up the NFC’s top seed.

MONDAY, JAN. 3

(-3.5) Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Steelers. Baker Mayfield has been hilariously bad in late/close situations this season, while Ben Roethlisberger has one of the NFL’s top fourth-quarter passer ratings. Last week aside, the Steelers have played some close games recently and should be fired up to win what could be Roethlisberger’s final home start.
Ricky: Browns. Big Ben’s final game at Heinz Field, against a hated divisional rival, on “Monday Night Football,” with (slim) playoff chances hanging in the balance. The Steelers should win. But, Pittsburgh has been slaughtered in the trenches, ranking 30th in rush defense DVOA and 29th in run stop win rate. Cleveland leans on Nick Chubb and rolls.