New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills Betting Odds, Trends, and Picks for NFL Week 18 on FanDuel Sportsbook

The Buffalo Bills have already clinched a playoff spot, but a win on Sunday would clinch the division for them and guarantee them a home playoff game during the Wild Card round. Moreover, Buffalo could potentially finish as high as the second seed in the conference with a win. As a result, the Bills will likely play their starters on Sunday when they host the Jets in the regular-season finale.

Buffalo dominated Gang Green in the first meeting en route to a 45-17 victory. What’s critical to remember about the game was that the Bills had almost five hundred yards of offense with 350 through the air. Part of the reason the game was so lopsided was that the Jets committed five turnovers with four interceptions. It also helped that there was perfect football weather for such a high-scoring game. The temperature at kickoff was around 48 degrees. This time around, the temperature’s expected to be 33 degrees with wind speeds up to 19 miles per hour. That could be to the Jets’ advantage as both teams are less likely to have a big passing day.

Defensively, the Jets rank 26th in DVOA against the pass. And with a total of 41.5, oddsmakers are projecting a lower-scoring game. If both teams have to fight for fewer available points in the game, I’d rather be on the side of the underdog that’s already getting a 16.5-point head start.

The Jets have been competitive of late as they’ve covered the spread in each of their past three games. While the Bills will undoubtedly want to put the game to bed as early as possible, I think the Jets will make them earn it.

I admit that I don’t see many scenarios where the Bills would look to take their foot off the pedal or pull their starters. However, I think the weather could be the ultimate equalizer in slowing the game down just a bit. I don’t necessarily love the spread at 16.5 because two touchdowns and a field goal could beat you in this spot. As a result, I’ll look to grab some insurance and buy this line up to +17.5 (-130) with the road underdogs for a half-unit.