What’s Jimmy Garoppolo’s Value To 49ers-Packers Line? Depends Who You Ask
"I don't think we have the backup figured out"
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo took a shot to his throwing shoulder in Sunday's victory against the Dallas Cowboys and he reportedly didn't make any throws during Tuesday's walk-through in California.
There are rumors swirling that the former Patriots second-round pick's injury is worse than the Niners are letting on and that rookie backup Trey Lance might be thrown into the dragon's den this Saturday at Lambeau Field against the Green Bay Packers.
But quantifying Garoppolo's value to the point spread isn't as easy as you think.
Green Bay was a 5-point favorite at most sportsbooks early Monday morning, but that line is now painted -6 at basically every shop in the world thanks to a sizable about of money that showed on the Pack. That said, it's extremely difficult to get a consensus answer as to how much Jimmy G is worth to the betting line.
Oddsmakers have clear numerical drop-offs between Tom Brady and Blaine Gabbert in Tampa Bay and Patrick Mahomes and Chad Henne in Kansas City, but the gap between Garoppolo and Lance is much more mystifying.
"It's not just about how good the starter is, it's also what we think of the backup," Circa Sports sportsbook manager Chris Bennett told NESN. "And I don't think we have the backup figured out in this case because he's a rookie and he's only had a little bit of playing time.
"We kind of have something to draw on. It was the game when the Niners faced the Texans near the end of the season. At the beginning of the week, the presumption was that Garoppolo was going to start. San Francisco was favored by 15 in the market. Information got out on Tuesday that Garoppolo was hurt and might not start, so the line got as low as 11.5. Then it closed 14 at kickoff with Lance.
"So it really wasn't a big difference (-15 to -14) in that scenario."
San Francisco's stakes are much higher this weekend and the competition is exponentially stronger. Comparing the Texans to the Packers would be like comparing Illinois to Michigan in college football.
"It's also not going to be particularly nice weather-wise and I would think it's a much worse situation for Trey Lance to be able to succeed," Bennett analyzed. "Lance is a better athlete than Garoppolo, but San Francisco wouldn't be able to throw the ball down the field.
"I'm a little confused by this line," Bennett added. "I thought the top six in the NFC were pretty evenly matched. Granted, the Packers are the best of the bunch, but I don't feel like the gap is that wide between them and the Niners. You obviously have to factor in injuries to Garoppolo and Nick Bosa and Fred Warner. We'll be monitoring that stuff all week.
"I still believe there would be support for San Francisco at anything over 7 no matter who starts at quarterback."
I definitely believe the smoke around Garoppolo's throwing shoulder and don't think he'll be anywhere near 100% if he laces 'em up at Lambeau. The quarterback picture will become a whole lot clearer after Wednesday's practice when we'll learn more about which guy took first-team reps.
It may be impossible to quantify the drop-off between Garoppolo and Lance at this point, but I don't think either of them are any good. So I'll lay the points right now ahead of a very-possible move to -7.
Packers -5.5
RECORD: (93-82, +16.6)
