NFL Week 18 Picks: Trying To Decide Who Will Spoil, Who Will Quit
It's a big dart-throw week as the regular season concludes
We're so close to the NFL playoffs we can taste it. But first, we must endure a first in NFL history.
Week 18 of the regular season is here for the first time in the history of the league, and, well, there's not a whole lot to look forward to. Sure, there a few playoff spots to be decided, but the NFL's hope for this final week to be filled with massive matchups with playoff implications at every turn won't be the case.
In fact, there are some games that might mean something right now and will be rendered meaningless by kickoff due to outcomes in other contests. That makes trying to predict and pick games against the spread even more difficult than usual.
However, that's not going to stop NESN.com's Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle from making their weekly against-the-spread picks for every game on the slate.
But first, here's how they fared last week.
Here are their Week 18 picks, with betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbook.
'SATURDAY, JAN. 8
(-10.5) Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos, 4:30 p.m. ET
Mike: Chiefs. I'm just done picking the Broncos at this point. I'm a broken man when it comes to Denver, and that's not just because Javonte Williams' stinker cost me a fantasy championship.
Ricky: Chiefs. The Broncos will be without several starters in their secondary, and Patrick Mahomes vs. Drew Lock is, uh, a mismatch. Nice tune-up spot for the Chiefs ahead of the playoffs, and they still have something to play for with the AFC's No. 1 seed hanging in the balance.
(-5) Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Cowboys. Both teams are going to rest starters, you'd think, and Philly has nothing to play for at all. In fact, the Eagles could even move up with a loss. Dallas is the deeper team, so its second string must be better than Philly's -- right?
Ricky: Cowboys. Not only could the Eagles -- and the Cowboys, really -- rest certain starters, with the NFC's No. 6 or No. 7 seed the only options on the table for Philadelphia. They're also dealing with a COVID-19 situation that has the availability of some key players in question, while the Cowboys' offense presumably will be looking to get right after a flat performance in last week's loss to the Cardinals.
SUNDAY, JAN. 9
(-10) Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans, 1 p.m.
Mike: Titans. Mike Vrabel is a no-nonsense kind of guy who studied under Bill Belichick. He knows a strong showing here gets Tennessee the top seed while also representing a chance to get things all buttoned up before the playoffs.
Ricky: Texans. Still have doubts about Tennessee. So, while Houston winning four games this season qualifies as a miracle, it wouldn't be shocking to see the Texans play hard for David Culley on Sunday and at least make the Titans uneasy as they try to secure the AFC's No. 1 seed.
Cincinnati Bengals at (-6) Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m.
Mike: Browns. Cincinnati is resting everyone. Well, everyone who doesn't have COVID, at least. Furthermore, Baker Mayfield probably won't play for the Browns, which might be an advantage at this point. Regardless, don't watch this game.
Ricky: Browns. The Bengals clearly aren't putting too much emphasis on this game. So, why should we? At least we know the Browns will have a motivated quarterback in Case Keenum as Cleveland looks to finish its disappointing season on a high note.
(-15) Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars, 1 p.m.
Mike: Jaguars. Jacksonville has the chance to play the ultimate spoiler this week. In addition, the Colts have lost their last six games in Jacksonville. That's a huge number given the circumstance and given Indy's propensity to play close games. (Six of their last nine decided by a touchdown or less.)
Ricky: Jaguars. I can't believe I'm picking the Jaguars after how they looked last week in New England. Or all season, for that matter. But welcome to Week 18.
Chicago Bears at (-5.5) Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m.
Mike: Vikings. Minnesota is going to play its starters -- or at least that's what it sounds like -- whereas the Bears are stuck with whatever the Bears have. Matt Nagy potentially being a lame duck doesn't feel like it helps Chicago's case, either.
Ricky: Vikings. This could be the final game for both coaches, in which case it's easier to envision a motivated effort for Mike Zimmer than Nagy. Plus, Minnesota is getting back its starting quarterback (Kirk Cousins), while Chicago's Justin Fields landed on the COVID-19/reserve list Thursday.
(-7) Washington Football Team at New York Giants, 1 p.m.
Mike: Giants. This game stinks so bad.
Ricky: Football Team. How bad has the Giants' offense been? So bad that I'm actually willing to lay a touchdown on the road with Washington. Yikes.
Pittsburgh Steelers at (-5) Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m.
Mike: Steelers. When you really dig into the numbers, these two teams have been very similar to each other over the second half of the season. Neither has been very good. The total is quite low (42), and this just feels like a 17-13 game one way or another.
Ricky: Steelers. This has been an emotionally draining stretch for both teams. And while John Harbaugh deserves credit for keeping the Ravens competitive -- against good competition, no less -- in the absence of Lamar Jackson and others, it's just hard to lay more than a field goal knowing how vulnerable Baltimore's defense remains due to injuries.
(-3.5) Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m.
Mike: Packers. The Packers say they'll play their starters, at least early. Regardless, are we sure Detroit's starters are better than Green Bay's backups?
Ricky: Packers. Even though the team with the NFL's second-worst record beating the team with the league's best record -- albeit due to circumstance -- would be a fitting end to the 2021 season.
(-6) New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Patriots. New England in multiple years has seen its playoff momentum slowed by a final-week loss to the Dolphins, and you have to think Bill Belichick is driving that point home this week. I think this is a pretty complete effort from the Patriots in a tune-up for the wild-card round.
Ricky: Patriots. Gotta think last week's loss to Tennessee took the wind out of Miami's sails. New England will lean on its ground game and another strong defensive effort against a struggling offense to cover the number on the road.
New York Jets at (-16) Buffalo Bills, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Bills. Buffalo is 3-1-2 against the spread as double-digit favorites this season, and even after slow starts like we saw last week, the Bills tend to get it together. They won't know the outcome in Miami, so they'll likely have to keep the foot on the gas to shore up the division and a playoff home game.
Ricky: Bills. A touchdown (or two?) from Buffalo's defense seems reasonable as Zach Wilson tries to end his rookie season with flair but instead finishes the way he started. Bills roll.
Carolina Panthers at (-8) Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Bucs. Bruce Arians says they'll play for the No. 2 seed, which means he'll apparently play his starters. You'd have to assume Tampa Bay wants to run it up to then get guys out of harm's way, but even so, the Panthers' offense is so bad it's hard to see a late push for a cover.
Ricky: Bucs. Tom Brady probably has a hair across his you-know-what after this week's Antonio Brown drama. As such, this feels like one of those late-season tune-ups from his days in New England, where Brady and the starters land a few early haymakers before taking the rest of the day off.
San Francisco 49ers at (-4.5) Los Angeles Rams, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: 49ers. In the Rams' four losses, their opponents have averaged 35.5 carries per game. San Fran averages 34 rushing attempts per game in its eight wins. The Niners, regardless of who's at QB, commit to the run and keep it close while flustering LA.
Ricky: 49ers. Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers recently have owned Sean McVay and the Rams, winning five straight matchups, including their Week 10 clash 31-10. Will things balance out at some point? Maybe. But San Francisco's rushing attack will cause problems this week. As will the 49ers' fifth-ranked pass rush (Pro Football Focus) against Matthew Stafford, who has thrown six interceptions over his last three games and now has four pick-sixes this season.
Seattle Seahawks at (-6.5) Arizona Cardinals, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Seahawks. Apparently, I'm going back to the "Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll won't go down without a fight" well one more time. But I do think a relatively veteran-laden team should be able to put forth a professional effort and keep it close.
Ricky: Seahawks. Could be the end of an era for Seattle. Perhaps that doesn't matter for the purpose of this game. But it feels like a spot where the Seahawks let it all hang out, while the Cardinals' defense proved susceptible in the games leading up to their Week 17 win over the Cowboys.
(-3.5) New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons, 4:25 p.m.
Mike: Falcons. This is extremely cliche and narrative-driven, but Atlanta knocking its division rivals out of playoff contention seems like a pretty strong selling point for an otherwise meaningless game for the Falcons.
Ricky: Falcons. Because Atlanta hasn't forgotten all those unnecessary 28-3 jokes.
(-3) Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders, 8:20 p.m.
Mike: Chargers. Don't think -- it can only hurt the ball club, right? LA is the better team with a much higher ceiling, and Gus Bradley's insistence on playing the same defensive scheme no matter what will be a welcomed sight for Justin Herbert, who carved up the Raiders earlier this season, too.
Ricky: Chargers. What's the Raiders' biggest strength? Probably their pass rush. And the Chargers are equipped to handle that duress. Herbert boasts the seventh-highest PFF grade under pressure (among 32 QBs with at least 100 pressured dropbacks), a mark aided by his NFL-best turnover-worthy play percentage (1%) in such spots. Expect a healthy dose of Austin Ekeler (first among running backs with 596 yards after catch) as Herbert leans on his security blanket against a Vegas defense ranked 26th in dropback EPA and allowing the seventh-most receptions to RBs this season.
