Aaron Rodgers Odds: Bookmaker Explains How QB Impacts Future Markets
WynnBET's Alan Berg shaded all Rodgers' likely suitors
Here we go again with Aaron Rodgers.
The veteran quarterback's future is even more of a question mark than last offseason, when he essentially held the Green Bay Packers hostage deep into late July. That was before finally returning to the team for a "Last Dance" along with wide receiver Davante Adams.
Multiple American bookmakers were ready for Rodgers to wind up in Denver last summer, so those fellas behind the counter shaded the Broncos' future odds accordingly in anticipation of Rodgers relocating to Mile High.
There are more potential suitors this offseason -- Denver, Indianapolis and San Francisco to name a few -- and the NFL future boards would recalibrate very differently for every possibility.
I can't stop picturing the bookies in Las Vegas having pre-set odds for every Aaron Rodgers scenario and being able to push a button to pump out the new odds for wherever he lands.
Wouldn't that be kosher?
"I wish it were that easy," WynnBET senior trading manager Alan Berg told NESN. "That would be incredible. But if he does leave Green Bay, you turn everything off, stop the bets and reassess your risk.
"We shaded all the teams that we're extra concerned about. And you have to remember that Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson could also be on the market. Any of these guys can turn around a franchise, so we lowered a few teams in the future book to get ahead.
"Rodgers on a new team scares the bejesus out of me. I'm still afraid of that man."
WynnBET has watered down the future odds on the Broncos, Buccaneers and Colts to win the Super Bowl. A bookmaker doesn't want to take bets on bloated prices, especially with teams that are a quarterback away from being a real contender. Rather than deal Denver at 40-1, WynnBET is at 15 because they have to make a move. Indianapolis' true number is probably 35-1, but Berg has them at 25.
The Niners could make a splash, too, but their odds are already low given the respect for the 53-man roster and the fact that they lost in the NFC Championship by three points with a banged up Jimmy Garoppolo.
"You can't really shade a team like San Francisco," Berg explained. "Yeah, we would probably make them the betting favorite if they added Aaron Rodgers, but you're not going to crushed moving the odds in from 12-1 to 7-1. You get in trouble, though, when you're dealing a true number like 60-1 on Denver and you're late to react if he ends up there. Those nickel bets add up quickly."
WynnBET is currently dealing Green Bay at 15-1 to win Super Bowl LVII, but how high would Berg kick up that price if No. 12 isn't donning green and gold for Week 1 of the NFL season?
"Whew," Berg exclaimed before a pause. "If they get nothing back at quarterback and lose Adams, I would probably put the Packers at 100-1 and see if anybody wants it. I would take a bet at 100 and see if there's any real interest and go to 75 from there. I'm not really afraid of that team."
And if Rodgers is removed from the NFC North equation for the first time in 14 years, the betting pecking order is decidedly different. Green Bay has been favored to wear the divisional crown in almost every season since Rodgers replaced Brett Favre, but there's no way that song remains the same if he's gone.
Minnesota would likely be a -250 betting favorite (71% implied probability) or higher.
"It could be a two-horse race if the Bears make a leap with Justin Fields," Berg forecasted. "Our room seems pretty high on Chicago, not counting me. Young quarterback, new coaching staff and a defense that's not a complete zero -- it could be a turnaround-type team for sure. But I would be heavy on the Vikings as big chalk to win the division."
