NCAA Tournament Odds: These First-Round Longshots Pay Out Big

Upsets are easily the best part of the NCAA Tournament.

In the first round of last year’s Big Dance, we watched No. 13 Ohio beat No. 4 Virginia, No. 14 Abilene Christian clip No. 3 Texas, No. 13 North Texas knock out No. 14 Purdue, No. 15 Oral Roberts stun No. 12 Ohio State and Oregon State’s upset of Tennessee checked the 12-5 box.

A $10 dollar moneyline bet on Oral Roberts would’ve netted you over $100. So if you can isolate the right bracket buster, you’ll make some decent coin and be able to brag to all your friends.

Here are some first-round upsets that could be worth a flier in the 2022 NCAA Tournament:

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Mar 15, 2022

Montana State +900 vs. Texas Tech ($10 wins $90)
According to Ken Pomeroy, Texas Tech is the most-efficient defense in the country. That side of the floor isn’t the problem. The Tech offense, though, leaves a whole lot to be desired. The Red Raiders tallied 47, 51 (twice) and 55 (twice) in five of their losses this season. If they’re not putting the ball in the basket, they could see their season end against a Montana State club that shoots 37% from downtown.

Longwood +1300 vs. Tennessee ($10 wins $130)
Rick Barnes to the main stage. I repeat, Rick Barnes to the main stage. The Volunteers head coach is 1-12 ATS in his last 13 NCAA Tournament games at Tennessee and Texas. And as mentioned above, Tennessee lost as a 9-point favorite to Oregon State last year. This point spread against Longwood is twice the size, but would it really shock you if Barnes and Co. laid another egg?

St. Peter’s +1800 vs. Kentucky ($10 wins $180)
There’s no doubting Kentucky’s potential and talent, but it’s impossible to ignore the lack of experience. None of the top players in John Calipari’s rotation have played in the NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, Saint Peter’s is Top-20 in four defensive metrics — including 15th against 3-pointers and 11th against 2-pointers — and if the Peacocks can force a bunch of UK jumpers, this could get interesting.

Georgia State +3300 vs. Gonzaga ($10 wins $330)
The implied odds of this actually happening are 2.94%. So don’t get your hopes up. We witnessed a No. 1 seed bite the dust a few seasons ago and it will eventually happen again to another one. Gonzaga’s backcourt is entirely different from last year’s NCAA Tournament and maybe Georgia State’s three senior guards can keep this closer than everybody thinks. If it happens and you profit, please tip your bartender.