NCAA Tournament Potential Upset Picks: Circling One Winner For Each Seed
Don't get too carried away, though
The NCAA Tournament bracket is a funny thing.
Every year, we obsess over who will make the actual tournament and then as soon as we get the bracket, we break out the highlighter and red pens and search for the upsets that will finally win the office pool.
The irony, though, is picking upsets in your standard bracket pool is a dangerous game. Getting them right will give you bragging rights, of course, but nailing the Abilene Christian pick last year didn’t do you much good if you also had Baylor bowing out in the second round. You’re probably not winning if you don’t nail the champion.
That’s not to say you should go chalk all the way through. You just have to be smart and pick your spots, as a keen upset pick can be the difference if the rest of your bracket has you in contention to cash.
As a service to you, the loyal reader, we’ve spotlighted a potential first-round upset for all eight seeding matchups of the NCAA Tournament — and yes, even the No. 1 vs. No. 16.
No. 1 vs. No. 16
(-20.5) Baylor vs. Norfolk State
It’s only happened once ever, and it’s probably not happening again anytime soon. Baylor absolutely should roll here, but for the sake of the exercise, we will point out the Bears have some injury issues and could maybe be overlooking Norfolk State in a quest to defend their title. But probably not. Don’t take a No. 16 seed.
No. 2 vs. No. 15
(-18) Kentucky vs. St. Peter’s
The 15-over-2 is also super rare, so it’s more grasping at straws. That being said, St. Peter’s is actually one of the better defensive teams in the country, and we have seen John Calipari-led teams stumble early in the tournament — just probably not this early.
No. 3 vs. No. 14
(-7.5) Wisconsin vs. Colgate
It’s not often we see single-digit underdogs in the 3-14 spot, yet here we are. The average spread in the other three regions for this spot is 16 points, so that tells you a lot about both Colgate and Wisconsin. Colgate lives and dies by the 3-point shot, so if the Raiders are hitting from deep, that’s bad news for a Badgers team that typically doesn’t rely on the 3-pointer. The spread is that short for a reason.
No. 4 vs. No. 13
(-2.5) Providence vs. South Dakota State
Everyone has an eye on this matchup for a possible upset, and that short spread looks like a typo in a 4-13 spot. There are a lot of “experts” who believe Providence wasn’t as good as the record indicates, while South Dakota State might be undervalued. The Jackrabbits rely on the 3-pointer more than any other team in the nation, let alone the tournament. If the shots fall, they will win. Be careful, though: Public consensus on an underdog or an upset doesn’t typically work out well for the bettor or picker.
No. 5 vs. No. 12
(-5) St. Mary’s vs. Indiana
Everyone loves a 12-5 upset, right? It’s been a weird season for IU, which won nine of its first 10 nonconference games before sputtering in Big 10 play. The Hoosiers, however, shined in the conference tournament, where they knocked off Michigan and Illinois before losing by three to eventual champion Iowa in the semifinals. Indiana took care of business in its play-in win over Wyoming, and its defense — ranked 18th nationally by KenPom numbers — should keep them in it against a similarly defensive-minded St. Mary’s team.
No. 6 vs. No. 11
Colorado State vs. (-1) Michigan
The 6-11 matchups speak to the value in checking betting lines before filling out your bracket. Michigan actually opened as the betting favorite, and though the Wolverines have been bet down a little bit, it still speaks to how they’re viewed in the betting market. We could have just as easily penciled in Virginia Tech here, with the Hokies a slight one-point underdog against Texas and coming in with all the momentum after winning the ACC tournament.
No. 7 vs. No. 10
(-1) Michigan State vs. Davidson
The 7-10 matchups are going to be near-impossible to pick; the biggest spread in any of the games is just two points, and you could make a Sweet 16 case for all eight teams. Let’s roll with Davidson, though, and hope the defense doesn’t come back to bite us. The Wildcats can score at will, though, ranking 11th nationally in offensive efficiency at KenPom, ahead of legit title contenders like UCLA, Auburn and Tennessee. In terms of gaining leverage in your pool, taking Davidson might give some added leverage given the name value of Michigan State, a Big Dance mainstay. This Spartans team isn’t very good, though, at least not compared to Tom Izzo teams of the past.
No. 8 vs. No. 9
(PK) Seton Hall vs. TCU
As ESPN.com pointed out, Seton Hall went 1-7 against the top four teams in the Big East. That’s not ideal. What’s worse for the Pirates is that TCU resume is quite impressive by comparison with wins over Kansas, Texas Tech, Iowa State, LSU and Texas this season. These 8-9 matchups are basically coin flips with a No. 1 seed waiting, so don’t stress too much in making those selections.
