NCAA Tournament Odds: How Professionals Are Betting Big Dance
Wise guys don't care about your brackets
When it comes to the NCAA Tournament, many Americans prioritize their brackets. They’re easy to fill out and the bragging rights can last for months.
But brackets are far from the only game in town with sports betting now legal in 30 states across the country. In fact, the American Gaming Association estimates that 21 million American adults plan to place a bet on the Big Dance. And that’s a conservative number if you ask me.
Rather than plunk down a Benjamin Franklin on a bracket challenge that the math says you’ll likely lose, you can divvy up that $100 on individual games. Your edge is much higher when wagering on a singular event instead of against hundreds of people over the course of a NCAA Tournament.
Truth is, most professional bettors could care less about their Final Fours or how many teams they’ve got in the Sweet 16. They bet way more money on sides and totals during the first few rounds.
“I don’t even fill one out anymore,” one professional bettor who lives in Las Vegas told NESN. “The game-to-game action outweighs whatever’s on the line in a bracket pool for a couple beans. You start firing five to ten dimes a game and that bracket becomes less important as the tournament rolls on.”
Bettors will, however, use the bracket as a road map to plot out a team’s path.
“We’ve got a decent position on Arizona ‘Over’ 2.5 wins at +100,” the bettor said. “Arizona is almost a lock to win its first two games and I make them at least a 4.5-point favorite over Illinois or Houston. If that’s the case, Arizona is around -180 on the moneyline in that third game. But if it ends up being Arizona versus UAB or Chattanooga, that point spread is 12 or 13 and the moneyline is -1000.
“No matter how you shake it, Arizona to win three games at +100 is strong.”
DraftKings is dealing Arizona at +150 to reach the Final Four. That’s a betting market that has grown exponentially more popular over the last five years because it opens the door for teams you would never bet to win the national championship.
After all, winning six NCAA Tournament games is tougher than winning four.
“A team like UConn is really enticing at 20-1 (to make the Final Four),” the bettor explained. “The Huskies have the bodies in the paint to give Gonzaga a fight. If Gonzaga goes down, it’ll be at the hands of good guards or physical big men. UConn has the latter. That’s an amazing rebounding team, they block shots and they put a body on you. That’s the recipe to slow Chet Holmgren and Drew Timme.”
Most professionals are much more concerned with the daily markets, though. They would rather fire a big bet on a bad number or take an undervalued team than roll the dice on a futures bet.
“We do our best to get ahead of the market,” the bettor explained. “Take Bryant for example. Those Bryant totals got bet up consistently for the last two months. That play-in game against Wright State opened O/U 151.5 and we knew we had to get down early. The total was 155 or 155.5 an hour before tip-off. That comes from studying the way these teams are bet.
“If we wanted to, we could’ve had ‘Over’ 151.5 and ‘Under’ 155.5.
“Another team we pounced on was Davidson,” the bettor continued. “The oddsmakers really respect that team and professionals pounded them quite a bit this season. But most people are going to bet Michigan State because of the history and Tom Izzo and all that. None of that matters this year.
“Michigan State was a 2-point favorite for about 30 minutes. Now it’s a pick ’em at some spots.”
Wise guys make their money in the NCAA Tournament when they’re able to differentiate perception and reality. And they love fading the overreaction on the Saturday and Sunday slates.
So when a 14-seed pulls a big upset and they’re catching 9.5 points in the Round of 32, a professional will be happy to fade that team if his power ratings have the game closer to -13 or -14. That’s the way these guys operate.
They’re looking to zig when everybody else zags.
