When it comes to the Masters, defining a "long shot" isn't easy.
Part of what makes the golf season's first major so special is that we're accustomed to seeing the same players on the same course every year, and typically, it at least seems like the best of the best are the ones slipping on the green jacket come Sunday.
That's certainly true to an extent. Tiger Woods winning in 2019 was surprising given the circumstances, but it was his fifth career win at Augusta National Golf Club. Phil Mickelson has three green jackets. Even someone like Bubba Watson has won twice in the last 10 years.
But that's not to say the winner can't come from down the betting board. Just last year, Hideki Matsuyama won after opening the week in the 60-1 neighborhood. Patrick Reed and Danny Willett also won in the last 10 years at 50-1.
Here's a quick look at the last decade's winners and their consensus betting odds to begin the week.
Hideki Matsuyama (2021): 60-1
Dustin Johnson (2020): 10-1
Tiger Woods (2019): 14-1
Patrick Reed (2018): 50-1
Sergio Garcia (2017): 30-1
Danny Willett (2016): 50-1
Jordan Spieth (2015): 10-1
Bubba Watson (2014): 20-1
Adam Scott (2013): 25-1
Bubba Watson (2012): 50-1
The long shots aren't entirely random. Just one debutant has won in tournament history, so you need some local knowledge. Almost every winner has come in on some sort of run, so recent form is important, too. And since the course doesn't really change much at all year to year, we've got an idea of the sort of skill set that can play here.
So, just because the books and bettors aren't giving you respect in the market doesn't mean you can't drive off Magnolia Lane as a winner.
With the first round rapidly approaching, here's are some 50-1 long shots we're considering as we make our Masters 2022 picks.
Adam Scott (+5500): Scott had been closer to 65- or even 70-1 in the weeks leading up to the tournament, and you can probably still find similar numbers out there. Even at 55, though, there's a lot to like. For starters, he's a past champion, so that's a big checkmark. A woeful putter in the past, Scott had been rolling it supremely well leading into The Players, which is basically a throwaway given the weather situation at TPC Sawgrass. He finished fourth at the Genesis, a similar test and another place he has had success before. Scott is trending up and coming to a place he feels comfortable.
Shane Lowry (+5500): Lowry cracked the top 16 in our power rankings, so we're obviously gonna list him here. He also has a major to his name and comes in riding fine form. Lowry also does quite well to avoid bogeys, which is even more important here than most places, as the potential for landmine holes is everywhere you look.
Joaquin Niemann (+6500): At some point, it's going to sound like we're harping on the Genesis too much, but Niemann was so impressive at Riviera Country Club in February. He went wire to wire for the win, putting on an absolute tee-to-green clinic. He hits it far off the tee and is tidy around the green -- certainly a recipe for success at Augusta.
Billy Horschel (+7000): Billy Boy is red-hot coming into Augusta off a second-place finish at the Arnold Palmer followed by another deep run at the WGC Match Play. His past play at the Masters is unimpressive -- he's finished no better than 17th -- but he has seven starts, so that's a pretty solid bank of course knowledge.
Max Homa (+8000): There were much better numbers on Homa in the run-up to this week, but he's still worth a sprinkle at 80-1. Like Scott, he has won the Genesis at Riv, the second-most similar course on DataGolf's course fit tool. There are also some similarities to Quail Hollow, where Homa also has a win. He's been pretty bad in majors, which is surprising given those two wins came with loaded fields. But he can put together a weekend, especially given how good he is on the par 5s, which is key to success at the Masters.
Si Woo Kim (+9000): Kim has three finishes of 13th place or better since late January, so he has lingered around the top of leaderboards. He's solid off the tee and finds a lot of fairways to give himself a chance on just about every hole. The skillset isn't elite, so it doesn't always produce results, but he's got a sneaky-impressive Masters resume. Kim finished 12th place last season and has made four straight cuts while finishing no worse than 34th. He's a worthy look for a top 10 or 20 pick, too.
Webb Simpson (+13000): Simpson hasn't been 100%, isn't in the finest of form, and his game doesn't seem like a great fit for Augusta. But he's been an elite player at points in his career and has a major to his name. It just feels like too good of a number to pass up for a guy who has three straight top-20 finishes at the Masters with no worse than 12th in the last three appearances.
