MLB Odds: Red Sox Offer Perfect Example Of How To Find Edge In Betting

All good things come to an end, as the Red Sox had their seven-game win streak snapped with a 5-2 loss to the Angels on Thursday night.

As I wrote last week, the Red Sox had a stellar May. There’s no wonder why they went on such a win streak with the numbers they put up offensively — and then came Shohei Ohtani. Shotime had a dominant outing with multiple pitches over 100 mph, while striking out six and limiting Boston to just four hits.

Despite only piecing together six total hits in the game, the Red Sox still had plenty of scoring opportunities but went 1-for-10 with runners in scoring position. A lot of people might gloss over the RISP stat, but it alone tells us a lot about the potential value behind this Boston team, specifically in losses. Right now, they lead the league in runners left in scoring position per game with 3.83 a game.

For those who don’t know, RISP means a runner is on second or third base when a batter comes to the plate (a base hit away from scoring.) This stat tells us Cora and crew could have won even more games than their .517 win percentage through 58 games indicates.

Listen, I’m not a homer. I know most of my articles have been about betting on the Red Sox — win totals, to make the playoffs (which has now gone from +200 to -110), etc. This time, though, I believe this weak spot in the offense could speak to their potential ceiling.

When I broke down Boston’s rocky sub-.500 start, I mentioned the Braves’ win percentage in 2021. Atlanta went 111 games into the season before getting over .500. That put things into perspective, which is why I bring up the Braves again. After struggling for the majority of the 2021 season, the defending champions led MLB in batting average with RISP and two outs last year. This without a doubt was considered a huge factor in their World Series run. The Red Sox ran into this problem of leaving runners on second and third the majority of April, while posting the 11th-worst batting average with RISP (.231). They turned that around in May, ranking eighth in batting average with RISP (.280). That’s almost a 50-point improvement in just one month.

Bottom line: Several of the Red Sox’s 28 losses could have been wins, had they taken advantage of their opportunities with RISP. A perfect example is the fact Boston has lost six of its eight extra-inning games this season. This doesn’t come as much surprise. With the automatic or “ghost” runner on second rule, you begin extra innings with a runner already in scoring position. Those small-margin wins are important. Boston is 7-8 in one-run games, with six of those losses coming in April. Apologies for the comparison, but the Yankees (who have the best record in baseball) are currently 11-5 in one-run games. You see where I’m going with that.

Now, I get it. A hit is a hit, a run is a run, and a win is a win. I’m not arguing that. However, digging deeper into the numbers gives us a better idea of what sort of positive (or negative) regression we may see and whether a team is considered “lucky.”

Researching beyond-the-surface stats helps you identify the reasons behind a team’s success or struggles. With that, you can anticipate their potential going forward. That’s what we call finding an “edge.” If you can see where a team is headed before the bookmakers or market can, you can cash in on their value early. If the Red Sox fix their RISP issue, we’ll start seeing more of those long win streaks and their current value in the futures betting market will decline faster than Yankees fans’ “Red Sox suck” chants in May.