NBA Odds: How To Approach Betting Celtics After Malcolm Brogdon Trade

All it took was Brad Stevens trading for Malcolm Brogdon to put the Celtics on top of the NBA championship betting board.

Bookmakers at FanDuel recently made the Celtics +220 favorites to win the Eastern Conference and +500 favorites to win the 2022-2023 NBA championship. The defending champion Golden State Warriors have the fourth-best odds at +700, the same number tied to the Los Angeles Clippers.

So, we now should consider these questions: Is Boston a good bet right now and is Brogdon really that impactful?

Let’s break it down.

I always like to remind you of the ever-changing markets. The Celtics’ odds are going to fluctuate all season. All it takes is a slow start for those odds to get longer. An injury to a star player? We’re talking about a possible long shot. But barring an injury, the Celtics certainly have what it takes to return to the Finals for a second consecutive season.

Boston finished last regular season with the league’s best defensive rating, a top-10 offensive rating and the third-best point differential (+3.5). The C’s did all of that with a first-year head coach and after hovering around .500 through the first four months of the season. The start of the 2022-23 campaign should look much different, especially with the addition of a talented guard in Brogdon, but I would still wait for a better number on the Celtics’ Finals or conference title odds.

In my opinion, Boston’s newest piece to the puzzle is where the value is. The current odds on Brogdon to win NBA Sixth Man of the Year at FanDuel is at 16-1. If you bet this now and he wins, $10 wins you $160 and $100 wins you $1,600.

Brogdon even said it himself on ESPN NBA insider Adrian Wojnarowski’s “The Woj Pod Show” that he was ready to take on the challenge of impacting the team from the bench.

“(Celtics president of basketball operations Brad Stevens) talked about me coming into Boston and embracing a sixth man role,” Brogdon told Wojnarowski. “If I wanted to come to Boston, that would be one of the things I needed to embrace. For me, I’ve made a lot of money. Whatever I can sacrifice to get back to that championship level, I’m willing to do it.”

Brogdon has been a starting player for the past four years. He led the Indiana Pacers last season in points (19.1) along with 5.1 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game. Based on those numbers, he was just as effective as Boston’s assist leader Marcus Smart (5.9), not far off from the Celtics’ second-highest scorer in Jaylen Brown (23.6) and much more effective than their third-highest scorer, Derrick White (13.2).

On top of that, Brogdon brings a ton of talent on defense. When you look at it that way, it makes sense why bookmakers made the Celtics the favorite to win it all. If they had him last month against the Warriors, he might have been the difference maker in the Finals.

There’s no denying there is a lot of competition in the league for the Sixth Man of the Year award. FanDuel bookmakers believe 11 players are more likely to win the award ahead of Brogdon, to be exact. However, I see the value here with Brogdon. If the Celtics are able to make another run similar to what we saw in the second half of last season, I think Brogdon will play a big role in that.

Remember that just like the Celtics’ odds will change, Brogdon’s sixth man odds will, as well. If he makes a case for the award early in the season, those odds will get short fast.