Fantasy Football 2022: Five Wideouts Who Could Prove To Be Overvalued
Situation and team game plan hurt these pass catchers
Value is key in a fantasy football draft, and it's important to master the macro strategy of getting the best bang for your buck rather than focus on a micro player take.
Skill position players are the most important for this strategy -- wide receivers], especially. While highlight catches can go viral, the most important thing for fantasy players is volume. You want the players who catch a lot of passes, especially ones that go for touchdowns.
Here are five pass-catchers who are being overvalued at their prices:
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
Samuel got paid this offseason, and while that is all fine and good for him, it shouldn't change much for fantasy players. The receiver is being drafted as the WR7 in Yahoo leagues, and that is way too steep of a price for a player with a new quarterback under center. Trey Lance may be good, but it appears head coach Kyle Shanahan will ease the second-year QB into his first full season as a starter, which means a lot of running of the football.
Samuel has been vocal throughout the offseason he does not want to be used as a running back like he was during the second half of last season. This means less touches for Samuel, and his upside will be capped with less passing volume for the 49ers offense. Samuel is an incredible talent when he has the ball in his hands, but the reality of that happening is likely to be few and far between, meaning a top 10 fantasy year is unlikely.
A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles
Similar to Samuel, Brown will likely suffer from the Eagles' run-first approach. Philadelphia had the second-most rush attempts in the league last season, and it was third in rush rate on first down. Despite trading considerable capital to acquire the 25-year-old, this is likely not to change in 2022. At the price tag of WR13, you're banking on high efficiency, but it's likely more safer to seek out more high-ceiling options.
DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
Metcalf's average draft position is a perplexing one. He is being drafted as the WR19 in Yahoo leagues, but Tyler Lockett's ADP makes him the WR38. That's a wide disparity for the Seahawks teammates. Yes, Metcalf is insanely talented, but like Brown, you're banking on touchdown efficiency with Metcalf. In the four games Geno Smith was under center, that was how Metcalf scored the majority of his fantasy points. Smith or Drew Lock will be the starting QB for the Seahawks, and that does not bode well for Metcalf. His ADP price at WR19 is just too much to ask and should be closer to where Lockett is.
Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints
Is Thomas healthy enough to play a 17-game season? That is the question fantasy managers will have to ask themselves before clicking on Thomas' name. He is being drafted as the WR30 in Yahoo leagues, and that is too much of a risk to take on a player who missed all of last season and only played seven games the year before that. Even when he does play, he's in a whole new environment -- one without Sean Payton and Drew Brees.
Jameis Winston's biggest strength is throwing the ball outside of the numbers, an area where Thomas does not historically excel in. Brees was a tactician hitting Thomas on middle of the field slants, but Winston's interceptions tend to come in that area. The fit isn't there between quarterback and receiver, and fantasy managers are better off chasing upside elsewhere.
Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers
Watson started off training camp dealing with a knee injury, and while the rookie is working with Aaron Rodgers, first-year players historically haven't gotten off to fast starts in Green Bay. Rodgers thrives on having a strong connection with his pass catchers, and Watson will have to do a lot of work to develop trust with the Green Bay signal-caller.
How the Packers deal with the loss of Davante Adams is unknown, but a committee approach is likely. Head coach Matt LaFleur will also likely lean on running backs A.J. Dillon and Aaron Jones to be the team's top playmakers.
At WR57, drafting Watson won't be a killer to a fantasy team -- depending on how the rest of your draft went -- but options like Tyler Boyd, Rondale Moore and Skky Moore carry safer floors or more appealing upside than Watson.
