NFL Picks: Week 8 Best-Bet Parlay Down On Patriots, Jets Offenses
We're right back to some unders
Welcome back to the NESNBets NFL best-bet parlay, where we'd be filthy rich if we could bet on the parlay missing one leg every week.
Again, for the thousandth time: That's what happens when you bet parlays. Some people think they're suckers' bets, and even if they're not, the simple math says you're going to miss more than you make.
But it is getting quite frustrating to miss on just that one leg that is the difference between a nice 5- or 6-1 payout and nothing. Last week, we got out in front of the Russell Wilson thing and were on the right side (under) of the total in the Broncos-Jets game. The Steelers on Sunday night hung tough with the Dolphins in a grind-it-out, close, low-scoring game we predicted.
But the fat lady was singing long before Carrie Underwood on Sunday. Dak Prescott was rusty, and Jared Goff was Jared Goff. Despite combining for nearly 650 yards between the two clubs (five! Lions turnovers), the under was the play and our over pick finished it off.
We're back on the horse this week for the Week 8 best-bet parlay using consensus betting lines from NESNBets.com live odds page.
(+3.5, -110) Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings
Maybe the play is to start doing the parlay earlier in the week. The Cardinals opened as 5.5-point underdogs, but that's been bet all the way down to 3.5. It doesn't feel as good and it might be a stay-away if it got to a field goal, but we'll bite with the hook. The Vikings are coming off the bye, but that doesn't really tell us much with a first-year head coach. What we do know is they haven't beaten anyone this season. Minnesota's best win is at Miami, where they beat a mediocre Dolphins team that started its third-string quarterback and lost him midway through the game.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, are coming off a mini-bye of their own, and they're playing better -- at least defensively. They were horrendous in Week 1, but since then they have been a top-10 defense by EPA. This might also be a big Kyler Murray day. The Vikings had no answer for Jalen Hurts in Week 2, and Justin Fields had his best passing game of the season versus Minnesota while rushing for 5.9 yards per carry to boot. Murray kind of falls in between those two and is definitely closer to Hurts, so the Cardinals should be able to move the ball, too.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 43 (-110)
Kenny Pickett shows flashes of being the quarterback of the future for the Steelers, but the fact remains: Pittsburgh has scored a total of 31 points in the three games since he has taken over. On the road, it has been especially ugly, as highlighted by the 38-3 loss in Buffalo in his first start. The Eagles might not lay it on that bad, but Philly's defense was one of the best before trading for Robert Quinn this week from Chicago. The Steelers still don't have a run game, and Pickett has seven picks in 127 passes. Pittsburgh is going to struggle to score.
To the Steelers' credit, though, the defense largely has been good. Granted, the Bucs' performance is slightly less impressive after Tampa's Thursday night showing, but the Steelers have played a lot of rock fights already this season. Pittsburgh has a top-10 rush defense, and if it can figure out something (anything) to increase the pressure, it could make this thing relatively low-scoring.
New England Patriots at New York Jets UNDER 40.5 (-110)
It's hard to find a path to sustained offense for either of these teams. We'll start with the upstart Jets, who are dealing with a brutal rash of injuries prior to their biggest game in years. Rookie running back Breece Hall is done for the season. All he did was lead his position in yards per touch and was averaging a big play every handful of times he got the ball. Tackle Alijah Vera-Tucker is out for the season, too, the last remaining strength of an already decimated offensive line. Zach Wilson under pressure this season has a passer rating of 12.7, and the Patriots rank fourth in total QB pressures. As bad as that Wilson passer rating under pressure looks, New England quarterback Mac Jones is even worse with an 8.7 rating, the worst of any QB who has thrown a single pass. The Jets are a top-10 pressure team, too, and we can't even say for sure Jones is that good, not to mention the issues swirling around that offense right now. We'd lean to the Patriots on the side, expecting something like a 17-6 game. Maybe that's far too bearish on these offenses, but this feels like a game that could go way under.
Potential payout: 1 unit to win 5.69 units
To date: Down 1.77 units
