NFL Picks: Week 14 Best-Bet Parlay Zeroes In On Key Injuries
We're full steam ahead with the Lamar Jackson-less Ravens
Frustration for the NESNBets NFL best-bet parlay has very much set in. At least we only have a few weeks of embarrassment left.
As you can tell, we're in a very good headspace after yet another losing week. Losing sucks no matter the circumstances, and any attempts to convince ourselves that it's more annoying to hit all but one game than miss multiple picks in a week were pointless.
Last week's bloodbath was on the wrong side of the Titans-Eagles game and the bold prediction that a 49ers-Dolphins game would go under proved to be foolish. And we needed a gift garbage-time touchdown in the Packers-Bears game to hit that over and save us from an 0-3 week.
There is, however, a job to do, and with that, here is the Week 14 best-bet parlay.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans UNDER 41
Obviously, these sorts of things are factored into the line already, but there are some injury concerns in this game that could put it below an already-low number of 41. The biggest is Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence could miss this game with a toe injury as he hasn't practiced this week. Even if he plays, you have to imagine he'll be hobbled, and while he's not exactly a dual-threat, even the idea of trying to push off sounds painful. On the other side, the Treylon Burks injury looms large for the Titans. The Tennessee rookie also hasn't practiced due to a concussion suffered last week. The Titans offense following his return in Week 10 ranks 16th in EPA per play; they ranked 22nd in Weeks 1-9, so finally getting him involved has certainly helped that unit come alive. He scored a game-tying touchdown early vs. Philly but was hurt on the play, and the Titans were outscored 28-3 after he left. Tennesse has the much better defense, but if it can't move the ball as effectively, it levels the playing field for an inferior Jaguars defense.
Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks UNDER 44
We are back on our you-know-what when it comes to fading the Seattle offense. All the credit in the world to what Geno Smith has been able to accomplish this season, but don't be surprised if he struggles this week. Seattle bell-cow running back Ken Walker has an ankle injury and hasn't practiced this week putting his status in doubt. He's been a revelation for the Seahawks as a rookie, not just with what he's been able to do with the ball in his hands but with how he has helped open the passing game. In fact, Geno Smith has the NFL's highest passer rating on play-action drop-backs, and some of that has to be attributed to the threat of Walker, right? And since a couple of rough games at Atlanta and Cincinnati, the Carolina defense has looked better. The Panthers rank third in EPA per play allowed over the last three weeks. Meanwhile, their offense still stinks, so instead of using the side here, the total -- more specifically, the under -- feels like the play.
(+2) Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Ravens aren't going to have Lamar Jackson this week, which seems like a big deal. But in addition to the fact that he just hasn't been overly effective this season, the Baltimore backup -- Tyler Huntley -- is a capable understudy. Huntley made four starts for Jackson last season, and the Ravens did lose three of those games. The trio of defeats, however, came by a combined seven points. He knows this offense, he knows the personnel, and Baltimore knew it needed a player with a similar (although obviously less impressive) skill set to back up Jackson, whose inclination to run makes him an injury risk every season. The Steelers, on the other hand, have looked better in recent weeks, especially on offense. But the Ravens' defense has actually been pretty stout, especially over the last month. Baltimore has allowed 13 points or fewer in three of its last four games and ranks fourth in EPA per play allowed. The turnaround goes back even farther, actually. By the same metric, Baltimore had the 25th-ranked defense through four weeks and ranks 10th since. It should be a little back-to-earth dose of reality for Kenny Pickett and the Steelers offense this week.
