NFL Week 13 Prop Bets: Derek Carr, Austin Ekeler To Feast In Shootout?
It could also be a big week for Nick Chubb
The NFL Week 13 schedule kicked off with a Buffalo Bills win at Gillette Stadium, and I think everyone (especially New England Patriots fans) is ready to move on to the rest of the slate.
Along with some teaser legs I like, there are a few props to consider for this weekend’s games.
Cleveland Browns (-7) vs. Houston Texans
Nick Chubb over 89.5 rush yards (-115)
Chubb bounced back from a quiet Week 11 against the Bills, with a 116-yard game against the Buccaneers in Week 12. Week 11 was simply an outlier for Chubb against one of the league’s best defenses. He’s averaging more than 94 rush yards a game this season, even with that 19-yard game included. The fifth-year back has six triple-digit rush yard games so far and has gone over this prop in seven of 11 games. This week, he’s facing a Texans team that is allowing the most running back rushing attempts per game (28.1), most rushing yards per game (168.6) and has the third-worst rush defense by DVOA. Cleveland is a 7-point favorite in this matchup and with Deshaun Watson under center, the Browns aren’t expected to play from behind and should be able to run out the clock on the ground. That may be the case, or Watson will need to shake some rust off and lean on one of the best running backs in the league. Either way, Chubb should have a big game here and with plenty of volume.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-1)
Derek Carr over 253.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
The Raiders host their divisional rival Chargers in what bookmakers essentially consider a pick ’em game. For the arm talent Justin Herbert has (with his passing yards prop set at 289.5), and with the game having one of the highest totals on the board, I’m expecting a lot of back and forth — leading to Carr hitting the over on his prop. When they met in Week 1, the Chargers won 24-19, with Carr throwing for 295 yards. I think we can expect a similar result from Carr this Sunday, with the Chargers ranking right around average in overall pass DVOA. The nine-year-veteran has reached the over on this passing yards prop in three of the last four games, averaging more than 277 yards in that stretch. That four-game stretch includes 307 passing yards against Denver, whose defense is allowing the third-fewest passing yards per game.
Austin Ekeler over 6.5 catches +115 at DraftKings
Ekeler not only leads the Chargers on the ground but has played a crucial role in the passing game as well. He leads the team in receiving targets, with 23 more than Joshua Palmer, who comes in second. His 98 targets actually rank top 10 in the NFL and his 80 catches rank fourth in the league, behind only the most elite wideouts (Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson). The dual-threat back has had seven or more catches in five of the last six games. He’s averaging over eight catches on close to 11 targets a game in that stretch. The matchup bodes well as he is facing a Raiders defense that is allowing the most yards, third most targets and second most catches to running backs through the air per game. His receiving yard prop is set at 46.5, which is tempting, but there have been several games where he had seven catches without hitting that yardage prop, so catches looks like the safer play here. You’re getting this at plus money because it is a high number, but I still like the chances, especially with the matchup. Feel free to only risk a half unit if you’re less convinced.
