Adalberto Mondesi is one of the more intriguing players for the 2023 Red Sox, especially if there's a significant change to how the game is played this season.
Boston acquired the infielder in a trade with the Kansas City Royals this winter. He reports to spring training as one of a handful of players who will compete for playing time up the middle, especially in the wake of Xander Bogaerts' departure and Trevor Story's injury.
Mondesi is a toolsy player with a pretty high ceiling.
Entering the 2015 season, Baseball American ranked Mondesi -- the son of former Dodgers outfielder Raul Mondesi -- the No. 28 prospect in all of baseball. BA considered him the top prospect in the Royals' farm system for two years.
"Mondesi's tools are exceptional, but he's yet to show the ability to put together the consistent stretches that show those tools are being matched by skills," Baseball America wrote in his 2016 scouting report. "An average runner when he signed, Mondesi has gotten stronger and faster and is now is a plus-plus runner who will turn in top-of-the-scale times. At shortstop, he's a potentially plus-plus defender with an equally impressive 70-arm. The Royals asked him to play second base sporadically this year to give him some versatility."
It's that speed and running ability that really offers the most intrigue entering 2023. Mondesi posted a career-high 43 stolen bases in 2019 and then led the big leagues with 24 swipes in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. Injuries limited him the past two seasons, but he had 20 stolen bases in just 40 games over the course of 2021 and 2022.
So maybe it shouldn't come as a huge surprise that DraftKings Sportsbook has made Mondesi the betting favorite to lead the big leagues in stolen bases this season at +500.
Stolen bases leader (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Adalberto Mondesi +500
Ronald Acuna Jr. +600
Esteury Ruiz +700
Cedric Mullins +800
Julio Rodriguez +1200
Bobby Witt Jr. +1300
Trea Turner +1400
Tommy Edman +1500
MLB rule changes for the 2023 season make the stolen base leader market even harder to handicap. Generally speaking, we don't know for sure what to expect in the running game across baseball this season.
After an exhaustive survey of fans, MLB learned its customers want to see more action. They want to see, among other things, more stolen-base attempts. In an attempt to do that, the league has not only made the bases bigger, but a pitch clock paired with a limit on how many times a pitcher can disengage from the rubber should lead to increased traffic on the basepaths.
If Mondesi stays healthy, he certainly has the speed and prowess to lead the league. He has 119 stolen bases since the start of 2018, reaching that mark in 286 games. The 119 thefts rank fourth in all of baseball, behind a trio of players (Turner, Starling Marte and Whit Merrifield) averaging 138 steals in 636 games. Put another way: Mondesi averages twice as many steals per game as those three players.
Health isn't the only consideration, either. The other thing keeping Mondesi from coming through on those early-career projections is his inability to make consistent contact. His 29.6% strikeout rate over the same timespan is the 19th-highest out of 315 qualified players dating back to 2018.
"He's elite in speed," Red Sox manager Alex Cora told reporters earlier this week at spring training. "He's running at 70%, and you can see it. Dynamic, good defender. We still have to work on the offensive side of it just to make sure he gets on base at a higher rate."
If the Red Sox can do that, Mondesi will be a menace on the basepaths in 2023.
