NHL Best Bets: Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs Game Picks

One of the NHL’s biggest rivalries is set to take center stage later tonight, with the Montreal Canadiens visiting the Toronto Maple Leafs.

All Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

It would be an understatement to say it’s been an eventful last 24 hours for the Maple Leafs. They went out and acquired Ryan O’Reilly and Noel Acciari from the St. Louis Blues. Both players are expected to be in the lineup later this evening. Making a move like this is designed to light a fire under the Maple Leafs and send them in a more positive direction, which is almost hard to do when you consider they’re already one of the top teams in the NHL.

Toronto will welcome the Habs tonight to Scotiabank Arena, coming in on a 4-5-1 record over their last ten. The Leafs have been solid over that same sample size, sitting with a 6-3-1 record. This will be the third of four matchups between these clubs, with the first two being one-goal victories by the Canadiens.

Looking toward the projected goalie matchup tonight, the visiting Habs are expected to start Jake Allen. In contrast, Toronto’s goalie situation is a little more cloudy, with Ilya Samsonov fighting an illness, meaning Joseph Woll could be between the pipes. The Canadiens netminder has posted a 12-17-2 record, paired with a .895 save percentage, while Woll has made just five starts in his NHL career, owning a 3-2 record, along with a .908 save percentage. 

The Maple Leafs are the much better team in this matchup, but you can typically throw the standings out the window when two rivals like these collide. Toronto should find a way to win this hockey game, but there’s no real value in their moneyline or puck line prices. On the other hand, the Habs have some value to keep this game within two goals, meaning we’ll be happy to back their +2.5 puck line odds at -138. 

Best Bet: Canadiens Puck Line +2.5 (-138) 

The Maple Leafs continue to be a top-ten team in the NHL in goals scored and allowed per game, while the Canadiens sit in the bottom third of the league in both categories. That should create a more lopsided affair, but history has shown us that doesn’t typically transpire in this season series.

Over the Canadiens’ past five games, they’ve seen seven or more goals scored in four of them, while the Maple Leafs have seen that transpire in three contests. One of two matchups between these clubs already saw seven goals scored, and with the recent trends, they’ve shown us, the over 6.5 should have some value here at -106. 

Best Bet: Over 6.5 (-106) 

Toronto has had a difficult time scoring goals on the Habs this season, but that doesn’t mean we should look away from some of their top goal-scorers to make a difference tonight. Auston Matthews is back from injury and returned with a nice two-point performance (goal and assist) against the Chicago Blackhawks on Wednesday. The Leafs’ star center has recorded 22 goals in 29 career games against the Canadiens while also tallying 26 in 48 games this season. The price for Matthews to score tonight isn’t exactly a bargain at -122, but we still feel comfortable backing that number. 

Best Prop: Auston Matthews to Record Over 0.5 Goals (-122)