How Patriots’ Zay Flowers Interest Impacts NFL Draft Betting Odds

The Patriots’ newest weapon could be right down the street.

Word around town is that New England has its eyes set on wide receiver Zay Flowers out of Boston College, and the rumors have had an impact on the NFL draft betting odds.

Flowers has been linked to the team after spending time with Bill Belichick and his staff in the East-West Shrine Bowl, as well as being brought in for a top-30 visit in early April. The Patriots aren’t the only team he met with, though, and his draft stock began “surging” in early April, according to ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler. On April 19, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that Flowers was in Texas to work out with Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes at the request of the team.

The 22-year-old star out of BC is coming off a 2022 senior year in which he caught 78 passes for over 1,000 yards and 12 touchdowns.

Flowers’ odds in the draft market have fluctuated, just as the Patriots’ draft odds have. For a while, offensive lineman and cornerback were the favorites for the team to take off the board first. However, since the connection between Flowers and the Pats became public, FanDuel Sportsbook set wide receiver as the +200 favorite to be the first position drafted by New England, followed by cornerback at +250 and offensive lineman at +300. The difference in odds might not be drastic, but it’s telling. It would have been ideal to grab the receiver number when the odds were longer, but there’s still value left.

At 5-foot-9 and 182 pounds, Flowers’ measurables might not jump off the board, but he could actually fit perfectly into Belichick’s offense.

“He’s Julian Edelman with rocket boots,” CLNS’ Taylor Kyles said. “His measurables and testing numbers were very comparable to Jaylen Waddle and John Metchie — two of Mac Jones’ favorite receivers in college. He plays bigger than he is because he goes up to get the ball downfield and can make grabs through contact.”

Plus, according to Kyles, he’s already studied their playbook. If anything, he’s betting on himself to make an immediate impact if chosen.

With Jakobi Meyers off to the Raiders, there is a big hole that needs to be filled in the Patriots’ offense, and New England has had its share of smaller wide receivers in the past, like Wes Welker and Edelman.

NESN’s Zack Cox says Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba would be the best receiver for the Pats, and second would be Flowers. However, Smith-Njigba is the -250 favorite to be the first receiver off the board, and his pick prop is set at 12.5, so it’s unlikely he will be available for the Patriots at No. 14.

“Smith-Njibga is quicker and a better route-runner, while Flowers is the more explosive and dangerous big-play threat. Either one would be a good addition to a Patriots offense that’s lacked high-end receiver talent for years,” Cox said.

While either receiver would be a good addition to the roster, Cox makes a good point about Belichick’s history with the draft, as New England has taken a receiver in the first round just once in 23 years under Belichick: N’Keal Harry in 2019.

“I’m skeptical that Belichick would use a first-round pick on a wideout given his track record. My money would be on the Patriots waiting and taking a pass-catcher (receiver, tight end or both) on Day 2,” Cox said.

With all this said, be careful about reading too much into draft odds. They are extremely volatile and change purely based on what people are “hearing” around the league. For example, former Ohio State quarterback CJ Stroud was close to -200 to go No. 1 overall in late March, and now just a few weeks later, he’s not even a favorite to be the No. 2 pick. His odds have dropped to fourth at +275 behind Tyree Wilson, Will Levis and Will Anderson. Still, there is a possibility that Stroud goes first overall. No one truly knows.

This is a market you need to approach with caution. However, if the hype and the rumors come to fruition, Flowers to New England is a bet that could have a nice payout on draft day.