NFL Draft Odds: Patriots Still Favored To Go Receiver, But Did They Tip Their Hand?
As always, it's a game of darts when predicting the Patriots' draft
The Patriots are famously unpredictable when it comes to the first round of the NFL draft, though one trend over the course of Bill Belichick’s tenure in New England is fairly evident.
New England has selected a receiver in the first round just once under Belichick. That was in 2019 when the Patriots took N’Keal Harry at the end of the first round out of Arizona State. That selection was a spectacular disaster.
In fact, Belichick’s track record of drafting receivers in any round is questionable at best.
So, it’s a bit curious to look at FanDuel Sportsbook’s odds for the draft and see wide receiver as the favorite to be the position of the first Patriots player drafted in next week’s draft.
Position of Patriots first drafted player
Wide receiver +200
Cornerback +250
Offensive lineman +300
Defensive lineman +600
Running back +1600
Safety +2000
Tight end +2000
Linebacker +2000
Quarterback +3000
Because the Patriots, who have the No. 14 pick next week, play everything so close to the vest, it’s hard to know just how the power dynamic works in the front office when it comes to the draft. We all just assume Belichick has the final say, but it’s undeniable that director of player personnel Matt Groh has taken on a greater role in the draft process over recent years.
Groh was front and center Tuesday at Patriots media availability, where he spoke about a variety of draft-related topics. For bettors looking to fire on that first-pick prop, this assessment from Groh on the 2023 receiving class stood out.
“Look, I think if you’re looking for a guy, it’s not just a first-round guy,” Groh told reporters. “There’s a lot of good wide receivers in this draft, and there’s a lot of good wide receivers in this league that weren’t just first-round picks. So, you can find these guys throughout the draft. Obviously, if you’re taking one in the first round, you better have some conviction about him.”
Everything said by anyone should be taken with a grain of salt at this point in the draft process, and the Patriots haven’t left a ton of breadcrumbs otherwise. Of their 20 top-30 visits tracked by PatsPulpit.com, New England has taken more with receivers than any other position. Of course, not all of those are first-round prospects, and they have met with just as many projected first-round players at other positions like offensive line and defensive line.
One name that might be worth knowing is Clemson edge rusher Myles Murphy. The Patriots met with Murphy at some point this week, judging by Murphy’s social media activity, and Murphy himself said he spent a lot of time with team officials around his pro day.
The other major thing to note about how that FanDuel bet is worded is that it says “first drafted player” and not first-round pick. It would surprise no one to see the Patriots trade down the board or even out of the first round completely. That theoretically could put them in position to draft someone like Murphy, who projects as a late first-round pick. All that certainly makes a 6-1 bet a lot more enticing.
With the Patriots, though, unpredictability typically rules the day when it comes to the draft. New England’s first-round selection of Cole Strange a year ago surprised the football world and oddsmakers alike. Offensive lineman was the fourth favorite behind defensive back, linebacker and defensive lineman among the odds leading into the draft.
