Offense, Starting Pitching Pave Way For Best Way To Bet Red Sox
BOS is 17-7 to the "Over" this season
I still have no idea how many games the Boston Red Sox will win this season.
So far, the Sox have actually exceeded expectations from a betting standpoint with a 12-12 record through 24 games. Let's remember they were projected to win between 77 and 79 games by Las Vegas bookmakers heading into Opening Day, so things could be a lot worse. Just ask the Chicago White Sox.
There are extremely valid question marks around starting pitchers Chris Sale (8.22 ERA) and Corey Kluber (8.50 ERA) and we'll see how long the team can tread water if the two veterans continue to throw five innings or less. Kluber hasn't thrown a pitch in the sixth inning in four starts, which is alarming. Boston's silver lining is that it hits the snot out of the baseball most nights to balance the seesaw and make up for the lack of quality starts.
The Red Sox are an "Over" monster right now, something bettors must consider until further notice.
Best MLB "Over" teams:
BOS 17-7 (70.8%)
HOU 15-7-1 (68.2%)
OAK 15-7-1 (68.2%)
TEX 15-7-1 (68.2%)
TB 13-7-3 (65%)
CHW 12-8-3 (60%)
ATL 13-9-1 (59.1%)
The profitability point for a bettor laying -110 is 52.8% and Red Sox "Overs" -- the average price is approximately -110 -- are hitting at 70.8% to date. It goes without saying that a 70% clip on anything is unsustainable over a full 162-game season, but if the Sox hit six of 10 "Overs" for the next 30 or 40 games, the wave is certainly worth riding out.
Boston's starters are struggling across the board with a 6.71 ERA, the second-worst in baseball, and when you combine sketchy starting pitching with an offense that's averaging 5.67 runs per game, odds are good you'll be in a decent position to cash "Over" bets in the near future.
I had to laugh Monday when the Red Sox-Orioles game was lined at O/U 8 when Sale entered the game with an ERA above eight. Sale got pounded for nine hits and five earned runs and it was 5-4 O's after five frames. If not for both bullpens combining to throw over six scoreless innings, we're talking about an even higher-scoring affair.
For every Nick Pivetta start that lands 4-1, 1-0 or 5-3, there are just way too many opportunities for the 10-4, 11-5, 5-4 and 12-5 final scores we've seen over the last six days with the way the Red Sox are hitting and pitching the baseball. Trends don't generally pay the rent over a long period of time, but if you stay ahead of the curve before the entire world catches up, you can make some decent cabbage.
Don't overthink it.
