Vegas Golden Knights vs. Edmonton Oilers Series Betting Preview & Picks

The lowly Winnipeg Jets were no match for the Vegas Golden Knights, who dispatched the wild-card challengers in just five games. The Golden Knights differentiated themselves with their solid defensive play. The only time Vegas appeared out-matched in the opening round was Game 1, a 5-1 loss in their friendly confines. Since then, the Knights only blew a lead once, still hanging on for victory thanks to a timely overtime marker from Michael Amadio. It’s unlikely they’ll be able to dismiss Connor McDavid and the surging Edmonton Oilers with such ease. 

Edmonton took a few games to get their sea legs underneath them, but eventually, they breezed past the Los Angeles Kings. The Oilers dropped two of the first three before rattling off three straight wins while scoring at least five goals each time out. Surprisingly, McDavid was kept relatively quiet in the first round. The Hart Trophy favorite recorded three points through the first three games, breaking out for seven across the final three games. The Pacific Division runner-ups will need more from their captain if they hope to skate past the division winners and into their second consecutive Western Conference Finals.

• Game 1: VGK vs. EDM – May 3 @ 9:30 pm ET
• Game 2: VGK vs. EDM – May 6 @ 7 pm ET
• Game 3: EDM vs. VGK – May 8 @ 8:30 pm ET
• Game 4: EDM vs. VGK – May 10 @ 10 pm ET
• *Game 5: VGK vs. EDM – May 12, TBD
• *Game 6: EDM vs. VGK- May 14, TBD
• *Game 7: VGK vs. EDM – May 16, TBD

Although the Oilers were contained early in Round 1, it wasn’t from a lack of effort. Edmonton attempted 11 or more high-danger chances in all but one of those matchups, recording just four goals at five-on-five through the opening three games. Joonas Korpisalo was the difference, posting a 93.1% save percentage while facing at least 33 shots each time out. The fatigue from the constant barrage eventually set in, and we saw a deterioration in Korpisalo’s metrics toward the end of the series. Golden Knights netminder Laurent Brossoit could face a similar fate in Round 2. 

Brossoit has been operating well above expectations this postseason. The backup tendy was thrust into the starter’s role after Logan Thompson went down with a lower-body injury a few weeks ago. Since then, Brossoit has gone 9-1, with a 2.02 goals-against average and a 93.0% save percentage. Throughout his career, the former sixth-round pick has benchmarks of 2.78 and 90.8%, putting him at risk of regression over his coming games. 

That could be facilitated by the best offense in the league, which continues to deliver exceptional performances.

• Series Price: Golden Knights +124 | Oilers -152
• Eastern Conference Odds: Golden Knights +240 | Oilers +155
• Stanley Cup Odds: Golden Knights +600 | Oilers +400

Edmonton has been unstoppable over the latter part of the season. Since March 1, including the playoffs, the Oilers are an NHL 22-2-3, averaging 4.4 goals per game. That elite output is validated with sterling underlying metrics, as the Oilers have easily been one of the best analytics teams in the NHL across that span. At five-on-five, McDavid and company are averaging 12.8 high-danger chances per game, scoring on 9.9% of shots. Their shooting percentage looks even better when we factor in their historic powerplay, with the Oilers posting a 12.8% shooting percentage across all strengths. 

• Oilers -152
• Series Total Games 6 +194

We can’t dismiss the Golden Knights’ chances altogether, but they don’t have the offensive wherewithal to compete with the Oilers. Vegas attempted nine or fewer quality opportunities in three of five against the Jets, averaging 9.2 high-danger and 23.4 scoring chances. Moreover, they’ve lost their analytics advantage over the season’s final six weeks, posting negative relative metrics in possession, shots, scoring, and high-danger chances. They’ve overcome those shortcomings with inflated shooting and save percentages, inflating their PDO to a league-high 1.042.

Inevitably, the Golden Knights will regress. We anticipate it is coming in the second round against an elite Oilers squad. Edmonton’s best chance of moving on comes by winning in six or fewer.