In over two years writing columns for NESN, I have never advised you to bet the favorite in a golf tournament. That said, Scottie Scheffler has me flipping the script.
Scheffler (6-1) sits atop the betting boards at every single American sportsbook to win this weekend’s U.S. Open at The Los Angeles Country Club and it’s really not that close. He is priced five dollars shorter than Jon Rahm and Brooks Koepka over at FanDuel and nine dollars shorter than the highly-emotional Rory McIlroy.
That’s because Scheffler’s recent form is insane.
In his last 16 PGA tournaments, Scheffler has placed 12th or better every single time with two outright victories and 13 Top-10 finishes in that window. And that’s with the 26-year-old far from locked in with his putter.
“He finished one shot off the lead at Memorial a couple weeks ago and lost like eight and a half on the green over the course of four days,” Circa Sports assistant sportsbook manager Jeff Davis told NESN from Las Vegas. “He’s hitting the ball so much better than anyone else.
“If Scheffler putts break-even, he’ll be very hard to beat.”
More betting
U.S. Open odds at FanDuel:
Scottie Scheffler +600 ($100 wins $600)
Jon Rahm +1100
Brooks Koepka +1100
Rory McIlroy +1500
Patrick Cantlay +1700
Viktor Hovland +1700
Xander Schauffele +1900
Jordan Spieth +2400
Cameron Smith +3100
Max Homa +3100
Matt Fitzpatrick +3400
Tyrrell Hatton +3400
Collin Morikawa +3400
Tony Finau +3400
Golf bettors that are much smarter than me always talk about value in a given tournament. I can’t even count how many times over the years I’ve been told not to bet a top golfer at 9-1 because there’s no “value” left.
Value is a big-time buzz word in the sports betting industry and I’m always ready for a healthy debate on the topic. It’s interesting because I’ll bang the drum all day for line value in almost every sport. I’ll never bet an NFL team +6 when I could’ve bet +7. I’ll never bet “Under” 133 in a college hoops game that opened 138.
And that’s mostly at -110.
Golf is a different monster, though, because we’re talking about the same result just at different prices. I need the golfer to win, right? So if I’m betting Scheffler to win the U.S. Open, I don’t really care if the price “should” be 8-1. One handicapper told me back in April there was no value in Jon Rahm to win The Masters.
Reminder: Rahm won The Masters.
It’s also funny to me how golf Twitter will absolutely destroy somebody who bets a hot favorite near the top of the board, but those same people will gloat about betting guys at 30 or 40-1 who close at 22-1 then miss the cut.
Zzzz.
As Davis alluded to, Scheffler can do special things at the U.S. Open if he finds his putter and I’m willing to take a chance on the world’s hottest golfer this weekend.
Scottie Scheffler outright (+600)
Scottie Scheffler to finish Top 5 (+160)
RECORD: (134-145, +15.4)
