Are 3 Touchdowns Too Much for Notre Dame to Cover Against Navy?

by

Aug 24, 2023

Dublin is abuzz with anticipation as two storied college football teams prepare to face off. This matchup isn’t just any game; it’s the Notre Dame Fighting Irish taking on the Navy Midshipmen in a Dublin debut for the Irish. As the city gears up for what promises to be an unforgettable bout, let’s delve into the details.

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Notre Dame enters this contest as a 20.5-point favorite, with the over/under for the game standing at 49.5. If you’re an avid follower of college football and Notre Dame, you know they usually shine brighter when they’re underdogs. But as favorites with a spread like -20.5? That’s a trickier proposition. 

Over or Under on the Navy-Notre Dame Total?

Reflecting on the previous season, Notre Dame grappled with covering sizeable spreads. A standout memory for many is the surprising loss to Marshall, an event that had many questioning Marcus Freeman‘s position merely two games into his tenure at Notre Dame.

But here’s the twist: this preview isn’t just about Notre Dame. Enter Navy, the real story of this game. Known for their vaunted triple-option offense, Navy has a history of covering when they’re gifted points like these. It’s a challenge to outscore them, given the limited time they provide their opponents. Should Navy manage to rack up 14 points, the complexion of the game changes, making Notre Dame’s path to victory and covering the spread much tougher.

While the Irish boast a talented quarterback in Sam Hartman, their strength lies in their running game. With a deep running back room, they’ll likely lean into their ground game. Additionally, there’s no need for the Fighting Irish to reveal all their strategies in this opener. They might opt for a more measured approach, especially with a not-so-intimidating matchup against Tennessee State the following week.

The dilemma for bettors centers on whether to back Notre Dame with such a hefty spread against an academy team like Navy. Given the dynamics of this matchup, the challenge Navy’s playing style presents, and Notre Dame’s history with large spreads, it promises to be an enthralling contest on the emerald isle. 

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Thumbnail photo via Greg Swiercz / USA TODAY NETWORK

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