Eagles Or Chiefs? Most Wins Bet Offers Season-Long Value Play

As the search continues for decent payouts in the NFL futures market, we find ourselves with one of the simpler bets: most regular-season wins.

The Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles have the highest win totals at 11.5. The odds on the over for the Eagles is around -110 at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Chiefs win total over is lined at -140. Instead of risking $110 and $140 to win $100, the “most wins” market offers a much better payout. Keep in mind it’s not the same bet, but it’s a correlated play that has a high chance of hitting if the win total over cashes.

The Chiefs are the +400 favorites here, with the Eagles having the second-shortest odds at +500. Based on last season, be careful counting Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs out. The departure of Tyreek Hill was supposed to take a big hit to the offense in 2022, but instead, they continued to thrive — all the way to a Super Bowl win.

The two teams finished with identical records at 14-3 last season with Philly finishing a few points ahead of the Chiefs in point differential. While I feel uneasy fading Andy Reid’s squad in any way, I’ll take my chances with Philadelphia. The Chiefs have the fifth-toughest schedule based on projected win totals, while the Eagles have one of the weakest. That’s not surprising when you compare the competitive differences between the AFC and NFC.

The Chiefs face a much tougher test in the AFC West in 2023, even after going 6-0 in the division last season. The Denver Broncos’ improvement alone could be a major factor. Regardless of whether Sean Payton is the savior head coach this team needs, it will be close to impossible for Russell Wilson to play any worse than he did in his Denver debut season. On top of that, the defense showed signs of cracking the top 10, while the Chiefs have some questions on the defensive end with a young unit.

The Eagles defense, meanwhile, is a unit that could win games on its own. The 2022 group became the fourth team in NFL history to record 70 sacks in a season. Not only do they have a pass rush that quarterbacks fear, but an elite cornerback room with Darius Slay and James Bradbury. Pair the stout defense with an offense led by Jalen Hurts — one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the game — and a plethora of weapons, and you have yourself a team with the most wins in the NFL.

The Eagles are currently underdogs in just one of their 17 games this season. They’re catching points against no one other than the Chiefs in Week 11 at Arrowhead Stadium. However, the Chiefs are just 3.5-point home favorites. If the game was being played in Philadelphia, it’s likely you would see that line flipped to the Eagles as small favorites. Yet, it might not matter for the Eagles. The Birds finished 2022 with the best road record at 7-1 last season, with their only loss being a one-score game against the Dallas Cowboys with Gardner Minshew filling in for an injured Hurts.

It’ll be a tight competition between the two teams, but it’s a fun bet to watch play out. The potential for a nice Eagles payout — $100 wins you $500 — might be too tough to pass up.