Still Think Patriots Win Seven Games In 2023? Step Right Up…
Pats' adjusted win total is 6.5
It’s time to have the conversation about the New England Patriots.
How many wins do they finish with?
After Week 4, DraftKings dealt the Pats’ adjusted season-win total at over/under 6.5 with the “Over” juiced at -110. FanDuel was a smidge more expensive at -118. Always be shopping.
It’s easy to overreact and predict only four or five victories, but even at 1-3, New England is too well-coached to lose games against quarterbacks like Jameis Winston, Sam Howell, Anthony Richardson, Mitch Trubisky and Zach Wilson. When the Patriots start losing to those guys, it’s torpedo time.
For the sake of conversation, let’s say the Pats win four of those five, which isn’t a lock by any stretch of the imagination. That puts them at five wins with nine games left.
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Their remaining games are against the Las Vegas Raiders, Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, New York Giants, Los Angeles Chargers, Kansas Chiefs, Denver Broncos and Buffalo Bills. While there’s surely an upset or two from that list, none of those are layups.
If you made me bet it, I’m “Under” 6.5 wins.
The offense stinks and devastating injuries to Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez hinder a Patriots defense that relies on its best players to bend but not break. Both players are expected to miss multiple months, with Gonzalez reportedly out for the remainder of the 2023 campaign.
Yikes.
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Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White has precipitously dropped the Patriots near the bottom of his NFL power ratings. He even has teams like the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts rated higher than New England.
“I’ve got the Patriots at 95.5 right now, tied for 29th with the Giants,” White told NESN over the phone. “Then it’s the Bears at 93 and the Cardinals at 91.5. For context, I’ve got the Bills 109.5, Niners 108.5 and Chiefs 108.”
So White makes Buffalo a 14-point favorite (109.5 – 95.5) on a neutral field.
At the end of the day, the Patriots basically need to play an “A” game to make more tallies in the left column, especially against the heavy hitters. The days of superb quarterback play and rallying from double-digit deficits are gone.
The Pats must play stingy defense, milk the clock and bludgeon their way to 20-17 and 23-20 final scores to have any chance to cash an “Over” 6.5 wins ticket.
They certainly won’t get there on talent alone.
