Lions vs. Buccaneers Showdown: Predicting the Playoff Upset

by

Jan 19, 2024

Last week’s Lions’ playoff game was a rollercoaster for NFL fans and bettors, especially those who had backed Detroit. Detroit displayed a surprising strategy shift that left many in disbelief. The Lions, known for their aggressive plays and creative offensive tactics under the guidance of Offensive Coordinator Ben Johnson, seemed to take a backseat in the latter half of the game, resorting to less effective short passes and outside screens.

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Despite the unexpected performance, the Lions enter this week’s game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as 6.5-point favorites. The game’s total is set at an ambitious 48.5. The big question on every bettor’s mind: Will the Lions repeat their previous mistake, or will they capitalize on their offensive prowess?

The first half of last week’s game was a testament to the Lions’ capabilities, with an impressive 60% pass rate on first downs and an average gain of over 5.5 yards per carry from three wide sets. However, the second half painted a different picture. The team’s strategy shifted dramatically, focusing on running the ball against the Rams. This resulted in a drastic reduction in efficiency, with the team facing third downs with an average of 9.8 yards to go and a mere 20% conversion rate.

This conservative approach in the face of the Lions’ defensive weaknesses – particularly their vulnerability to 20-plus-yard completions against receivers – is perplexing. It starkly contrasts their usual dynamic gameplay and raises questions about their strategy moving forward in the playoffs.

Given these observations, the Buccaneers’ Baker Mayfield should exceed his passing yards prop. The Bucs are expected to rely heavily on their passing game, especially given the limited success anticipated for Rachaad White in the rushing department. With the Lions’ defense struggling against deep passes, the Buccaneers’ receiving corps could exploit these gaps.

This upcoming game between the Detroit Lions and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is shaping up to be a pivotal moment in the playoffs. If the Lions had learned from their previous game and reverted to their aggressive, pass-heavy strategy, the game could easily surpass the total of 48.5. However, if they continue with their conservative approach, the Buccaneers stand a solid chance of winning, primarily if they can protect Mayfield and exploit the Lions’ defensive shortcomings.

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Thumbnail photo via USA TODAY Sports Images

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