Will both sides come to terms on the exact amount — reportedly around $9 million — that the Red Sox will pay Lowell next season? When the Rangers, as they pore through Lowell's medical records, find fault with his notoriously problematic hip? If so, will Lowell be able to pass a physical and prove he's a viable option for the Rangers?
But then, even if everything does check out and Lowell ends up being shipped out of town, there's another question altogether, just begging for an answer: Why?
Why are the Red Sox unloading Lowell for a 25-year-old catching prospect, and why are they paying so much to do so? Is this just a good, old-fashioned NBA-style salary dump? Or is it about Max Ramirez? Or is there something else we're not seeing?
Sure, the Sox will cut costs for next season by trading Lowell now. By paying just $9 million of his salary, that's $3 million that comes off the books right away, and his replacement is sure to be a whole lot cheaper. So if the Sox have decided that they're done with Lowell at age 35, a trade makes sense. But they could trade the veteran third baseman anywhere in baseball, and for a vast array of potential prospects. There must be a reason GM Theo Epstein chose Texas — and a reason he chose Max Ramirez.
It's not to give him a job right away, that's for sure. Victor Martinez is firmly entrenched as Boston's catcher for next season — and for the future, if they can work out an extension. Ramirez won't even be a backup. That's Jason Varitek's role, and far be it from the new kid to unseat the captain. Ramirez, if he's lucky, is a starting catcher in Triple-A Pawtucket. That's about it.
Unless he's just one more part of a grand wheeling-and-dealing scheme this winter.
These are the facts:
1. Ramirez is a 25-year-old catcher with upside. He's got a bat with plenty of power. He put up a .490 slugging percentage in six seasons in the Rangers' system, and he was an absolute terror in his last full season of minor league ball, in 2008 with the Double-A Frisco RoughRiders.
2. The San Diego Padres have tried, and pretty much failed, to groom a twenty-something catcher of their own. After spending parts of two seasons in the major leagues, 26-year-old Nick Hundley has hit .238 and struggled to find his power stroke. The Pads have to be close to giving up on Hundley as the starter.
3. San Diego's GM, Jed Hoyer, was part of the Boston brain trust that selected Clay Buchholz in the first round of the 2005 amateur draft. Hoyer has watched Buchholz evolve as a pitcher for four years, and he loves him.
4. By signing John Lackey to a five-year, $85 million deal earlier this week, the Red Sox have one arm too many in their starting rotation. By the end of the hot stove season, they might even have a couple more. Buchholz, as promising as he may be, is expendable.
5. Buchholz isn't the only quality youngster Hoyer helped draft during his seven years in Boston. The names Michael Bowden, Casey Kelly, Ryan Westmoreland, Ryan Kalish and Lars Anderson might ring a bell.
Get the picture?
Here's what could happen, if and when Max Ramirez's contract comes into the Red Sox' possession. Epstein can package Ramirez, Buchholz and a third youngster of San Diego's choosing into a nice little trade package for Hoyer. In return, the Red Sox get one of the most promising young hitters in the game.
That would be Adrian Gonzalez.
Both sides win. The Red Sox, who are losing their grip on free agent Jason Bay and now stand to lose Lowell as well, would pick up a power bat that would cure all that ails the middle of their order. The Padres, who are trying to stay competitive on a tighter budget, would be able to turn one young, cost-controlled talent into three of them. And two of the three pieces (or maybe — in Bowden's case, at least — all three) would be ready to contribute at the big league level in 2010.
How could this deal possibly go wrong?
There's really only one way: if it is all squashed before it's even possible.
For the Red Sox, getting Max Ramirez could be a step toward a much bigger goal. And if that's the case, they better do everything in their power to ship Mike Lowell to Texas this December. There might be a lot more riding on it than just three million bucks.
