Lester had perhaps the best stretch run of any of the candidates if not for two horrific starts which all but sunk his chances. It did, however, offer up the answer to the question: What is the next step for Jon Lester? Essentially, he needs to be more consistent.
That may sound like a bizarre statement. The dynamic left-hander is just hitting his prime and may already boast the best arsenal in the American League when he’s on his game. However, he just needs to be on his game a few more times to reach a very attainable status as the best left-hander in baseball.
To illustrate the manner in which the downs can somewhat negate the ups, let's look at that finishing run by Lester in 2010. If you toss out his two poor starts, he was 8-0 with a 1.30 ERA from Aug. 9 to the end of th eyear. In those two stinkers, a home game against Toronto and an appearance at Chicago, he was lit up for 17 runs in six innings, walking eight, striking out six and giving up four home runs. In the eight gems, he struck out 65 in just 55 1/3 innings and did not serve up one single homer.
So what happened on those other two nights? It’s hard to say, but whatever bothers Lester during those rare rough ones has prevented him from climbing the ladder that last rung.
One answer might lie in the fact that Lester is still refining his attack. He threw off-speed pitches at an increasing rate in 2010, most notably turning to his changeup and a cutter that can be electric at times. As the 26-year-old works to perfect those pitches, he seemingly hits some bumps in the road, missing his spots from time to time.
It was evident in a walk rate that soared to 3.6 per nine innings, up from 2.8 each of the last two seasons. Lester walked three batters or more 18 times compared to 11 the year before in the same number of starts.
In an otherwise spectacular campaign, command was, at times, an issue, and it turned Lester’s best season as a pro into one which saw him have to sweat out several tough innings and a small handful of difficult starts.
Lester's pursuit of that next step is not anything the Red Sox should worry about. He has steadily improved in each of his three full major league seasons and has an uncanny intensity, remarkable work ethic and dominant stuff. When people see him on those many special nights, like they did in eight of his final 10 starts in 2010, it is evident those attributes have him standing among the elites. When they see him have a rare outing in which nothing seems to work, it is evident he can be that much better.
That’s a scary thought to the rest of the American League.
Each day of November, NESN.com will explore a different issue facing the Red Sox this offseason.
Tuesday, Nov. 23: Will Scott Atchison be able to duplicate his 2010 effort?
Thursday, Nov. 25: Will Tim Wakefield continue to be effective as he approaches the age of 45?
