2014 World Cup: USA Has 76 Percent Chance Of Advancing In 209 Scenarios (Photo)

by abournenesn

Jun 23, 2014

Jurgen KlinsmannWhen Silvestre Varela’s header sailed past Tim Howard in the 95th minute to earn Portugal a 2-2 tie against the U.S. at the 2014 FIFA World Cup on Sunday, it felt like heartbreak for American fans.

But as it turns out, things aren’t so bad for the Stars and Stripes.

While the U.S. could have sealed a spot in the knockout round with a victory over Portugal, it actually increased its chances of advancing to the round of 16 by earning a draw. According to FiveThirtyEight.com, the U.S. squad now has a 76 percent chance of qualifying for the next stage, compared to a 65 percent chance before Sunday’s outcome.

Exactly how the Americans can qualify, however, is a different story, as there are a whopping 209 possible scenarios for the U.S. when they take on Germany on Thursday while Portugal battles Ghana.

One Twitter user saved us all a headache by compiling a handy chart of each scenario, with a U.S. advancement in green and an elimination in red.

[tweet https://twitter.com/KellerAndy/statuses/480886761401647105 align=’center’]

Simply put, the U.S. still has a very good chance of advancing, but it’s complicated. If the Americans can keep it close against Germany and Portugal and Ghana have a slim result, they should be back in the Round of 16 for the second straight World Cup.

See advancement scenarios for all World Cup groups >>

Photo via USA Today Sports Images


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