Are the Dodgers about to go all-in for Bryce Harper?
That’s the prevailing question Friday after the Dodgers and Reds completed a blockbuster trade in which Los Angeles sent Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood, Kyle Farmer and cash to Cincinnati in exchange for Homer Bailey, Josiah Gray and Jeter Downs.
The Los Angeles Dodgers today acquired minor league IF Jeter Downs, minor league RHP Josiah Gray and RHP Homer Bailey from the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for C/IF Kyle Farmer, outfielders Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig, LHP Alex Wood and cash considerations.
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) December 21, 2018
In addition to involving several notable major leaguers, this trade has interesting financial ramifications, which Yahoo! Sports’ Jeff Passan outlined on Twitter:
Look at it like this: Kemp and Bailey are about a wash — slightly in Cincy's favor. Puig and Wood are good big leaguers but need to perform well for marginal value as 5+ guys. Jeter Downs is a legitimate cusp-of-the-top 100 prospect, and Josiah Gray was excellent in rookie ball.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 21, 2018
Kemp is set to earn $21.5 million in the final year of his contract, while Bailey will earn $23 million in 2019. Bailey’s contract includes a $25 million mutual option for 2020 or a $5 million buyout. However, Bailey counts as $17.5 million for luxury tax purposes. Kemp counts as $20 million.
The exact salaries for Puig and Wood — two players entering their final years of arbitration eligibility — are unclear at this point, but MLB Trade Rumors recently projected Puig will earn $11.3 million in 2019 and Wood will make $9 million.
The Dodgers, who reportedly are sending $7 million to the Reds, cleared roster space and created some payroll flexibility while also acquiring a couple of prospects with upside. That — coupled with the optics of trading two veteran outfielders — makes it natural to wonder whether signing Harper is Los Angeles’ next move.
It’s certainly possible, if not likely, as Harper long has been mentioned as a potential fit for the defending National League champions. But Passan explained Friday after the trade that the Dodgers could explore other options, too. This move simply opens several doors that had been closed.
Unlike Bryce Harper, if the Dodgers pursued J.T. Realmuto, Corey Kluber, A.J. Pollock, Craig Kimbrel or pretty much anyone, they remain safely under the luxury-tax threshold.
Like with their players on the field, the Dodgers relish flexibility financially. This deal offers it.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 21, 2018
The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal offered a similar assessment of the Dodgers’ post-trade situation:
In the wake of this trade, #Dodgers can do many other things besides take a run at Harper. They can sign free-agent A.J. Pollock and/or trade for #Marlins’ Realmuto or one of #Indians’ starting pitchers. Many ways they can go.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 21, 2018
Basically, it’d be wise to hold off on buying that “Harper” Dodgers jersey before Christmas. But it’s OK to put a few bucks aside for it, because the likelihood of him landing in L.A. seemingly increased Friday.
