Nick Wright isn’t expecting a walk in the park this Sunday at Gillette Stadium.
Although Wright acknowledges the Patriots own a sizable advantage in their Week 8 matchup with the Browns, the talking head also believes Cleveland has the potential to upset New England if certain stars align.
“I think the Browns have a viable path to victory,” Wright explained on Friday’s episode of “First Things First” on FS1. “I think the Browns, there’s a few things that have to be noted. One is the schedule — the Browns had a bye week, the Patriots played on Monday. You’re never going to have a bigger discrepancy in time to prepare than what you have in this game right here, with the Patriots on a short week and the Browns having the week off. That’s first of all.
“Second of all, the Browns’ offense — if you look at it on a per play basis — is a top-eight offense in football. They’re seventh in the league in yards per play. So why are they outside of the top 20 in every other main category? Because they keep turning the ball over. Because they don’t get into the red zone enough. Because they don’t score enough points. They don’t accumulate enough yards. Because (Baker Mayfield’s) been a turnover machine. Obviously, they have to play a clean football game.”
The Patriots improved their record to 7-0 on Monday night by destroying the New York Jets 33-0 at MetLife Stadium. The Browns, meanwhile, lost back-to-back games to the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks before a Week 7 bye.
On the surface, these teams appear to be headed in opposite directions despite the preseason hype surrounding Cleveland. But Wright still thinks the Browns pose a stiffer test for the Patriots than many are giving them credit for.
"The Browns have a viable path to victory. On a per-play basis, the Browns offense is a top 8 offense in football. … No matter what we think of the Browns, this is the best team the Patriots have played this year other than the Buffalo Bills." — @getnickwright pic.twitter.com/79obA5KUZf
— First Things First (@FTFonFS1) October 25, 2019
“I don’t think what the Patriots did against Sam Darnold and the Jets, I don’t think you can do that effectively against the Browns because (Odell) Beckham’s there,” Wright said. “If you go Cover-0 — if the Browns are smarter than the Jets were and say, ‘We’re gonna get the ball out immediately’ — Beckham is such a great route runner, and I would argue where he is maybe the best in the league is at his release point, at his break point in the route. Man-to-man coverage with no safety help can turn a 4-yard slant into a 70-yard touchdown. So I don’t think (Bill) Belichick’s going to put the defense in that position. But you also mentioned, Cris, the most important player in the football game, Myles Garrett. The Browns’ defense has to stay in the backfield on Tom Brady. If they do those things, I think they could win this football game.”
The Patriots have benefited from a soft schedule to this point, defeating the Pittsburgh Steelers (2-4), Miami Dolphins (0-6), Washington Redskins (1-7) and New York Giants (2-5) in addition to the Jets twice (1-5). The Buffalo Bills are the only team New England has faced with a winning record (5-1), and the Patriots squeaked out a 16-10 road victory over them in Week 4.
“This is without question, no matter what we think of the Browns, this is the best team the Pats have played this year, other than the Buffalo Bills and the Buffalo Bills were in that football game throughout and only didn’t win the game because they had a punt blocked for a touchdown,” Wright said. “So I would be surprised if Cleveland won. But it wouldn’t be the monumental upset that I think the point spread indicates it would be.”
