Nineteen New England Patriots players are set to hit free agency when the NFL league year opens March 18. As that date approaches, we’re taking a closer look at each one.
Up next: guard Joe Thuney
2019 STATS: 16 starts, one sack, four QB hits, 11 hurries allowed
LIKELIHOOD OF RETURN: Very low
ANALYSIS: One year after Thuney went an entire season without allowing a sack, the Patriots starting left guard let up just one in 2019. And it didn’t come on an easy block for the fourth-year pro.
The Patriots called a counter hot protection, where Thuney was tasked to pull and block New York Giants linebacker Alec Ogletree on the right side of the line. Ogletree got inside Thuney with a spin move and brought down quarterback Tom Brady in the backfield. Brady typically lets the ball go faster in that specific protection call.
ALEC OGLETREE SPIN MOVES FOR THE SACK 💪 pic.twitter.com/KLrcdB50oV
— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) October 11, 2019
It’s actually something Brady borrowed from Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts after the two QBs met up in Tennessee one offseason.
“They had a protection, the counter hot protection. It was basically a trap pass,” Brady said on NFL Network. “Sometimes they would pull the front-side guard, sometimes they’d pull the center and sometimes they’d pull the off-side guard. They would run a play-action and they would throw a couple combinations off it. Well, after this meeting I had with him (Manning) down in Tennessee, I came back — Bill O’Brien was the coordinator — and I said, ‘Billy, we got to put this protection in.’ It was the lockout year, we ended up putting this protection in and I swear to God, off of that action we do a lot things. We absolutely call that protection at least one or two times a game against them and Rob Gronkowski has probably 50 percent of his offensive production on that play.
“So to use that play against him (Manning) as well as to have basically Rob become a dominant player in the league off of that particular play is thanks to Peyton Manning.”
More Patriots: Why You Can Expect New England To Be Active In Trade Market
Thuney is the best interior offensive lineman on the open market, and it’s highly unlikely he returns to the Patriots. One reason for that is the Patriots already gave right guard Shaq Mason a big contract extension in 2018 that wound up being below market. The Patriots aren’t going to want to have Mason on the books for an $8.7 million cap hit while also paying Thuney significantly more. Interior offensive linemen are important; it’s probably not smart to invest over $20 million in cap space to two guards, however.
So, unless Thuney winds up generating much less interest than expected (unlikely), then he’ll probably be off to a new team making somewhere around $13-to-$15 million per year.
The Patriots could decide to franchise Thuney if they believe they could, in turn, flip him for a first-, second- or third-round pick. Teams typically don’t like giving up that kind of draft capital — plus a big contract — to a guard, however. So, the most likely scenario is Thuney leaves as a free agent this offseason and the Patriots might get a third-round compensatory draft pick for him in 2021.
Thuney will be missed in New England. He was their best offensive lineman over the last two seasons. The most likely candidate to replace him is 2019 fourth-round pick Hjalte Froholdt. The Patriots also could look to sign a bargain free agent or select another interior offensive lineman in the 2020 NFL Draft.
Previously: Adam Butler | Jermaine Eluemunor | Marshall Newhouse | James Ferentz | Phillip Dorsett | Shilique Calhoun | Nate Ebner | Nick Folk | Elandon Roberts | Danny Shelton | Matthew Slater | Ted Karras | Jamie Collins | Kyle Van Noy | Devin McCourty
