We were close. So close.
We got a little conservative last week with the best-bet parlay, opting for just three bets in search of our first win of the season. We were feeling pretty good when the Las Vegas Raiders and Kansas City Chiefs nearly hit the over in the first half, and we felt even better as the Houston Texans pulled away in their first game sans Bill O’Brien.
Unfortunately, the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens didn’t hold up their end of the bargain and went under the total, and thus, we are 0-5 on the best-bet parlay.
That changes now (maybe). Here’s the Week 6 best-bet parlay.
Washington Football Team at New York Giants UNDER 43 points
In the first four weeks of the season, an average of 36 total points were scored in Giants games. That changed last week when they combined with Dallas for 71 points. That’s the aberration, though, as the Cowboys have a historically underwhelming defense so far.
A return to the low-scoring affair seems likely this week against a Washington team that has a solid defense and little offense. Washington and New York rank 31st and 32nd in offensive DVOA, respectively, and the Football Team boasts the No. 4 defense (the Giants are 15th). Both teams also rank in the bottom five of ESPN’s pass-block win rate statistic.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) vs. Detroit Lions
Should the Lions ever be favored on the road? Probably not. Don’t expect much defense in this one, as these are two of the three worst defenses by DVOA and the two worst units by EPA per play against. That’s really just a fancy way of saying these defenses suck.
That’s built into the obscenely high total of 54.5, but we think there’s some value on the Jags here. Jacksonville is averaging 5.7 yards per play this season, which is right in the neighborhood of teams like the New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints. The Jags’ defense also is quite bad, but we like getting more than a field goal in a likely shootout that could come down to the wire.
New England Patriots to win OUTRIGHT (-500) vs. Denver Broncos
It’s been a weird week or two for Bill Belichick and the Patriots. Positive COVID-19 tests for Cam Newton and then Stephon Gilmore threw the organization into temporary disarray, forcing the team to do most of its work from home in a makeshift bye week.
Fortunately for New England, it looks poised to get both Newton and Gilmore — the team’s two best players — back this week against a pretty bad Broncos team. Belichick often does his best work in the face of adversity, although not even the pandemic pandemonium should make up for the difference in talent between these two teams.
Payout: $100 to win $337
Season: 0-5 (down $500)