Why Patriots Fans Shouldn’t Buy Into 2024 NFL Draft Odds

'Silly season' also includes fluctuating draft odds


Apr 16, 2024

The NFL draft is one of the most popular non-game events to bet on, and it’s why New England Patriots fans should be wary of the eye-popping headlines that should be expected in the lead-up to draft day.

There are multiple markets to bet on at major sportsbooks. Arguably the most popular is betting on what draft pick a prospect will get selected. This is where “silly season” sometimes can alter the market.

J.J. McCarthy entered the 2024 NFL Draft cycle as a long shot to be a top-three pick. Fast forward to a week ahead of the draft, and he’s 3-1 at FanDuel to go third overall. Teams reportedly are very high on the Michigan product, and the de facto general manager Eliot Wolf reportedly was “pushing hard” for the signal-caller, which is why he’s been linked to the Patriots.

How true are the rumors? Are fans just catching up to the hype on McCarthy, or is this simply his camp driving up interest?

It’s hard to say, but after increased betting activity, you’re not going to get the best number on McCarthy getting drafted in the top five picks. And it’s important to keep that in mind.

The odds are not indicative of sportsbooks having inside sources. “Vegas knows” is a common saying among novice gamblers, but there’s more of a system involved in how these numbers are crunched, and the key thing that moves odds simply is when a significant wager or multiple wagers are placed.

There was a point where Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels were tied to be the second overall pick. Those numbers moved to Daniels as the favorite at -320 and Maye with higher odds at +250. If there’s enough action those numbers could move again, and the same goes for the third overall pick.

The 2023 NFL Draft was a big indicator of this. Will Levis was seen by analysts as one of the top quarterbacks of the class, and a rogue Reddit post made the rounds. There was enough gambling action to dramatically shorten his odds of becoming the No. 1 pick. Levis fell to the second round, which meant there was a sizable amount of people who lost money tailing a phantom rumor.

What Washington and New England do at the top of the 2024 NFL Draft is anyone’s guess. Both sides generally kept a tight lid on plans leading up to draft day, and that likely won’t change. The rumors will keep flooding in, and the sharps and touts will have their action on draft props, but Patriots fans will have to remain patient and try not to buy too much on the hype of odds movement at a major sportsbook.

Thumbnail photo via Butch Dill/USA TODAY Sports Images

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