Red Sox Mock Draft Roundup: Experts Predict Boston’s Pick At No. 4 Overall

While the Boston Red Sox are focused on maintaining their lead in the American League East, the organization’s front office has another task on its plate: the 2021 Major League Baseball Draft.

The Red Sox own the No. 4 pick in the draft, which begins Sunday night, and should be able to land an impact prospect with the selection, Boston’s highest since choosing Mike Garman third overall in 1967.

That said, there’s a tremendous amount of uncertainty at the top of the draft board, making it difficult to project who will be available for the Red Sox at No. 4. The Pittsburgh Pirates, Texas Rangers and Detroit Tigers own the first three picks, in that order.

This year’s draft is highlighted by a quartet of high-school shortstops (Marcelo Mayer, Jordan Lawlar, Brady House, Khalil Watson), a pair of high-profile Vanderbilt pitchers (Jack Leiter, Kumar Rocker) and an offensively gifted college catcher (Henry Davis).

It’s possible the Red Sox will land one of those players, or perhaps chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom will go completely off the grid and sign someone to a below-slot deal at No. 4, thus allowing Boston to reallocate its bonus pool money elsewhere in the draft.

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Nevertheless, here’s who some MLB draft experts are predicting the Red Sox will take at No. 4, keeping in mind it’s a fluid situation, in which projections might change right up until Boston is on the clock.

Kiley McDaniel, ESPN (July 9): Henry Davis, C, Louisville
I think they’re hoping for Leiter (and might get him) and will settle for Davis, but aren’t ruling out the prep shortstops completely, with conflicting info about which one they prefer. They’re looking at North Carolina prep SS Payton Green and Florida prep SS Edwin Arroyo at their next picks.

Keith Law, The Athletic (July 9): Henry Davis, C, Louisville
The Red Sox seem to be on the three main college guys — Leiter, Davis and Rocker. I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of those three taken here. Davis did have an impressive workout for the Red Sox last week, and he’s probably the safest of that group.

Carlos Collazo, Baseball America (July 9): Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
If Leiter doesn’t go at No. 2 to the Rangers this spot seems like his most likely outcome at the moment. If Leiter is off the board, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Boston jump on Henry Davis or Brady House. Most sources we talk to seem to think Leiter won’t get past this spot, which is an indication that he could be the top player on Boston’s board. It seems like a solid fit for the team, as Leiter can certainly move quickly and the Red Sox are in more of a win-now position than other teams picking at the top of the draft.

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Mike Axisa, CBS Sports (July 9): Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
Passing up Davis, the draft’s top college hitter, would be difficult, but Leiter and the Red Sox have been a steady rumor all spring. He fits their contention window (i.e. right now and in the next few years) and they fit what figure to be his preferences (i.e. high-profile team, not have to sit through a rebuild, ability to pay big). Leiter is the best and most advanced pitcher in the draft class, and getting him at No. 4 would be a major coup for Boston.

Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com (July 7): Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Prep (Dallas)
The Red Sox may covet Leiter, but Lawlar gives them the highest ceiling among the four elite prep shortstops.

Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein, FanGraphs (July 6): Henry Davis, C, Louisville
Few teams have more wild rumors running around them than the Red Sox. There continues to be talk of the team trying to price Leiter down to them, but most sources believe that a team ahead of them will take him and dare his camp to turn down a $7 million payday. There are rumors Boston touched base with Mayer’s camp, but that the motivation there may be to inflate Mayer’s price above whatever threshold Pittsburgh deems acceptable so that they look elsewhere and Mayer goes second, making it possible for Leiter to fall to Boston at four. We’re giving them the best player available here, as they recently conducted a private workout with Henry Davis, House and Jud Fabian. Some hypothesize that if the Leiter/Mayer gambits don’t work, they’ll look to cut an under-slot deal, with prep catcher Harry Ford mentioned, in an attempt to spread out their $11 million-plus draft pool. This is also where Kumar Rocker’s market seems to begin.