Mac Jones has been favored to win the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year for much of the season, but is he starting to lose his grip on the award?
The New England Patriots quarterback has been slumping for about a month. He wasn't good against the Tennessee Titans and only threw three passes in the pre-bye week victory over the Buffalo Bills. He followed up a rough first half against the Indianapolis Colts with a strong second half, then played poorly in the Bills rematch.
In 15 games this season, Jones has completed 67.2% of his passes for 3,313 yards and 18 touchdowns to go along with 12 interceptions. He still is the highest-graded rookie quarterback by Pro Football Focus and 13th overall, down from when he held the seventh spot after Week 12.
But Jones' OROY candidacy really never has been about stats or PFF grades. Rather, it's based upon his leading the Patriots to a winning season while playing far better, and more poised, than most rookie quarterbacks ever do. However, with New England losing consecutive games to good teams and now falling out of the AFC East driver's seat, some have said Jones no longer deserves the award.
That's a bad take. He still deserves the award, though the gap admittedly is shrinking.
Here's our NFL Offensive Rooke of the Year rankings through Week 16:
Mac Jones, QB (Patriots)
It's worth noting that only quarterbacks, running backs and receivers ever have won the award since its inception in 1967. Running backs account for the vast majority of recipients, with quarterbacks and receivers responsible for 10 and nine winners, respectively. Odell Beckham Jr. is the last wideout to win the award, having done so in 2014. Justin Herbert won it last season.
There are no rookie backs deserving of the award this season. So, the reality is it will come down to Jones and Cincinnati Bengals wideout Ja'Marr Chase. If Jones rebounds this weekend against the Jacksonville Jaguars and finishes strong against the Miami Dolphins, he should win the award in a runaway. Chase has been good, but slightly overhyped.
Ja'Marr Chase, WR (Bengals)
Chase would be breathing down Jones' neck had he kept up his early-season pace.
The LSU product racked up a ridiculous 18 catches, 457 yards and two touchdowns from Weeks 5 through 7. But he averaged just 40.6 yards per game over his next seven games before breaking out with seven catches for 125 yards last Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens. For the season, Chase has 68 receptions for 1,163 yards and 10 TDs -- undeniably great numbers. However, he'll need to go crazy over the next two weeks to pass Jones.
Kyle Pitts, TE (Atlanta Falcons)
The NFL's next great tight end, Pitts began the season on fire, faded in the middle and now is enjoying a resurgence. The Florida product enters Week 17 with 64 catches for 949 yards and one touchdown, including 240 combined yards over his last three games. Pitts is a physical freak and an emerging superstar, but he doesn't have a shot at this award.
Creed Humphrey, C (Kansas City Chiefs)
The 63rd pick in the draft, Humphrey has been one of the few bright spots on Kansas City's iffy offensive line. Humphrey currently is PFF's top-graded center, which says a lot, considering how many good centers currently are in the NFL. Humphrey probably would get this award if it truly were about honoring the NFL's top-performing offensive rookie, but there's no way a center is getting it.
Rashawn Slater, OT (Los Angeles Chargers)
Slater, the 13th overall pick in the draft, has justified the selection -- and then some. The Northwestern product currently ranks as the 19th-highest tackle at PFF and has played at a Pro Bowl-caliber level for much of the season. Slater has come back down to Earth in the second half but still looks like a great pick by the Chargers, who were smart in prioritizing the protection of Herbert.
