The Los Angeles Rams are the favorites in Super Bowl LVI. They have the talent, the star power, the home-field advantage.
But their opponents, the Cincinnati Bengals, have been defying expectations all postseason, upsetting the AFC's top two seeds on the road to reach their first Super Bowl since 1988.
Here are five reasons why Cincy can pull off another upset on the game's biggest stage and claim the franchise's first-ever Super Bowl title. To read the case for the Rams, click here.
1. Joe Burrow and those wideouts
Perhaps the only position where the Bengals boast a decided edge is at quarterback. That's no knock on Matthew Stafford, but Burrow has established himself as a truly elite signal-caller in just his second pro season. And he's surrounded by one of the NFL's top receiving trios in Offensive Rookie of the Year Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. On the other side, the Rams have one All-Pro cornerback in Jalen Ramsey, but their secondary talent drops off behind him, with fellow starter Darious Williams struggling this season after an impressive 2020. That should create openings for Higgins and/or Chase if Burrow, who showed excellent escapability in the AFC Championship Game, can avoid being pummeled by LA's frightening pass rush.
2. Clutch defense
The Bengals' defense was a sieve for the first 29 minutes of the AFC Championship Game, allowing touchdowns on the Kansas City Chiefs' first three possessions. But outside of that one miserable stretch, they've held up remarkably well in these playoffs. Over their 28 other defensive postseason possessions, they've allowed just three touchdowns and 38 total points, forcing seven turnovers. This was an average to below-average unit during the regular season (17th in points allowed, 19th in Football Outsiders' DVOA), but it's risen to the challenge, especially in the red zone, with opponents finding the end zone on just 38.5% of their visits. Rams playoff foes, meanwhile, have scored on 80% of their red-zone trips.
3. Their O-line stinks -- but it might not matter
You've heard a lot this week about how much better the Rams' defensive line is than the Bengals' offensive line. That's not hyperbole. The talent gap between those two units -- Aaron Donald and Von Miller against a collection of replacement-level blockers -- is massive and could singlehandedly decide this game. But we've seen Cincinnati give up nine sacks (nine sacks!) in a game this postseason and still win. They've been able to mask that glaring deficiency thus far with supreme skill-position talent and opportunistic defense. Who says they can't do it again?
4. Matthew Stafford's penchant for picks
Stafford has been a fantastic addition to LA's offense this season. He's a massive upgrade over his predecessor, Jared Goff, and one of the main reasons the Rams are back in the Super Bowl. But the former Detroit Lion led the NFL with 17 interceptions. In the NFC Championship, he threw one pick and had another pass bounce off the chest of 49ers safety Jaquiski Tartt. If Tartt had held on, San Francisco might be playing in this game. The Bengals intercepted Ryan Tannehill three times in the divisional round and Patrick Mahomes twice in the AFC title game, including once in overtime. If they can keep this one close, a Stafford slip-up could be the difference.
5. Evan McPherson
It's odd to say the team with the Pro Bowl kicker (LA's Matt Gay) is at a disadvantage at that spot, but McPherson has simply been better in these playoffs. In fact, he's been phenomenal. The fifth-round rookie is a perfect 12-for-12 on field goals through three games, including three from 50-plus and a pair of last-second game-winners. He's two shy of tying his idol Adam Vinatieri's NFL record of 14 makes in a single postseason. Gay hasn't been bad, but he bizarrely missed short on a 47-yarder in the divisional round and pushed a 54-yarder wide right in the NFC Championship. There's a non-zero chance the Bengals win 19-17 with four long field goals and McPherson takes home Super Bowl MVP.
NESN's big game coverage is presented by Berkshire Bank
