Super Bowl LVI Picks: ATS Predictions For Bengals-Rams Showdown In LA
Who gets the Hollywood ending?
It feels like just yesterday we were preparing for the 2021 NFL season to start, and by Sunday night, it all will be over and a new Super Bowl champion will be crowned.
The Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals will square off at SoFi Stadium in LA, where for the second straight year a team will host the Super Bowl at their home stadium. For some, the idea of a Super Bowl without names like Tom Brady, Bill Belichick or Patrick Mahomes is hard to fathom, but others are embracing a new look on football’s biggest stage.
Regardless of how you feel about the actual matchup, there’s still going to be no shortage of betting on Sunday’s game, which we have covered extensively throughout the week. And, of course, it wouldn’t be an NFL week without NESN.com’s Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle making their against-the-spread picks, as they have done all season.
Before they reveal their selections, here’s how they’ve fared in the playoffs.
Now, here are their picks for Super Bowl LVI.
(-4) Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 6:30 p.m. ET
Mike: Rams
Give the Bengals all the credit in the world. There wasn’t really anyone outside of southern Ohio who thought they’d be one of two teams left standing when Super Bowl Sunday rolled around. That being said, it’s hard to really know what they do well and why they’re still playing. Sure, there’s top-end talent with Joe Burrow throwing to Ja’Marr Chase, but Cincinnati’s path to LA was a fairly advantageous one. Had the Chiefs not lost their minds, the Bengals probably are on the wrong side of a lopsided loss two weeks ago. The Rams seemingly have too much talent, starting on the defense.
While LA’s pressure rate ranked toward the bottom of the league, they still sacked the quarterback 50 times this season, meaning they get home. The Bengals did well to address the issue in KC, but it feels like the Rams are more likely to present the same kind of problem Cincinnati faced in Nashville in the divisional round. The difference this time around, though, is the Rams’ offense has a much higher ceiling than, say, Tennessee. The Bengals will do everything they can to erase Cooper Kupp — easier said than done. Even if the wideout’s impact is limited, Matthew Stafford still has plenty of options, and you have to imagine Sean McVay will have a backup plan to spread it around with secondary options like Odell Beckham Jr. and Van Jefferson.
I just think the Rams are going to win the game, and the winner of the Super Bowl has covered 46 times in 55 years. Typically, if you win, you cover, and the Rams are positioned to become the second team in as many years to win the Super Bowl in their own stadium.
Ricky: Rams
The single biggest mismatch in this matchup — the Rams’ pass rush vs. the Bengals’ offensive line — is one that has the potential to completely wreck the game for Cincinnati. The Rams’ defense, led by a generational talent in Aaron Donald, ranked first in pass rush win rate this season, while the Bengals had the NFL’s third-worst pass block win rate. Cincinnati’s offensive line ranked 31st in adjusted sack rate. Los Angeles’ defense ranked sixth in adjusted sack rate. Total scale tipper.
And not only will the Rams wreak havoc in the Bengals’ backfield, creating a substantial amount of pressure on Joe Burrow. They’re also well-equipped to eliminate the splash plays Cincinnati has been so reliant on throughout their magical run. Burrow completed 12 passes of 50 or more yards this season, more than any quarterback in the past 20 years. The Rams, however, ranked second in DVOA against deep passes (16+ yards from the line of scrimmage, per Football Outsiders), a testament to their coverage skills, which of course are accentuated by having a true shutdown corner in Jalen Ramsey.
The Bengals obviously deserve credit for making it this far. It was apparent early they were on an upward trajectory, and someway, somehow they’ve managed to defy the odds and reach the Super Bowl far earlier than most expected. But let’s be real: They’ve also benefited from a favorable road, having the NFL’s third-easiest schedule in terms of opponent DVOA, and that’s been especially evident in the postseason, with Cincinnati beating the Las Vegas Raiders (mediocre), the Tennessee Titans (the worst No. 1 seed in recent memory) and the Chiefs (coming off an emotional rollercoaster against the Buffalo Bills and completely wilting in crunch time) en route to SoFi Stadium. Maybe the story ends with confetti and a Gatorade shower for head coach Zac Taylor. But the more likely scenario is the Rams take care of business, easily covering the spread and asserting themselves as the superior operation.
NESN’s big game coverage is presented by Berkshire Bank.
