Let's make one thing clear right off the top: It's far, far too early to predict with any certainty what the New England Patriots' initial 53-man roster will look like.
But why not try anyway?
With the Patriots now off until they reconvene for training camp on July 26, here's our first crack at a 2022 roster projection after watching the team's four open spring practices:
QUARTERBACK
In: Mac Jones, Brian Hoyer, Bailey Zappe
Out: None
Hoyer's contract and Zappe's fourth-round draft slot should lock both into roster spots. The only question here is whether the rookie can challenge the 36-year-old journeyman for the top backup job behind Jones, the no-doubt starter.
RUNNING BACK
In: Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, J.J. Taylor, Pierre Strong
PUP: James White
Out: Kevin Harris
If White returns to full health before the season and Kevin Harris impresses in training camp, the Patriots will have some difficult decisions to make at running back. For now, we're leaving Harris off and choosing to go light at the position, with Taylor, Strong and Stevenson -- who spent the offseason honing his route-running -- sharing White's third-down duties until his recovery from hip surgery is complete.
WIDE RECEIVER
In: DeVante Parker, Jakobi Meyers, Kendrick Bourne, Nelson Agholor, Ty Montgomery, Tyquan Thornton
Out: Tre Nixon, N'Keal Harry, Kristian Wilkerson, Malcolm Perry, Lil'Jordan Humphrey
The Patriots typically don't carry six receivers, but we're viewing Montgomery as a multi-positional player who can line up at wideout or running back while also contributing on special teams, where New England lost several core contributors this offseason. Nixon was excellent in minicamp, but many Patriots receivers before him have faded after strong springs (see: 2019 Maurice Harris, 2020 Wilkerson, etc.). We're not ready to pencil him onto the roster just yet. We are ready to cross off Harry, who will enter his fourth Patriots training camp as a roster long shot. Humphrey, who caught 16 passes over three seasons in New Orleans, is the newest member of this group, signing Wednesday.
TIGHT END
In: Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, Devin Asiasi
Out: Dalton Keene, Matt Sokol
Asiasi hasn't provided much reason for optimism in his NFL career (10 appearances, two catches over two seasons), but he's been more available than Keene, his oft-injured 2020 draft mate. It'll be interesting to see how the Patriots' decision to no longer carry a traditional fullback changes their roster calculus.
OFFENSIVE LINE
In: David Andrews, Cole Strange, Mike Onwenu, Trent Brown, Isaiah Wynn, Justin Herron, Yodny Cajuste, James Ferentz
PUP: Chasen Hines, Andrew Stueber
Out: Will Sherman, Yasir Durant, Drew Desjarlais, Arlington Hambright, Kody Russey
Outside of Herron, who seems like a safe bet to stick on the roster, it's difficult to project the Patriots' O-line backups at this stage. Hines and Stueber -- New England's final two 2022 draft picks -- are intriguing players who could push for spots if they get healthy before camp. (Neither participated in any of the open spring practices.) Trading Wynn, which would free up $10.4 million in cap space, is a possibility after the Patriots moved him to right tackle in minicamp, and there's still time for New England to add another veteran to this group.
DEFENSIVE LINE
In: Davon Godchaux, Lawrence Guy, Christian Barmore, Deatrich Wise, Carl Davis, Sam Roberts
Suspended: Daniel Ekuale
Out: Henry Anderson, Byron Cowart, Bill Murray, LaBryan Ray
As with their offensive counterparts, it's difficult to judge D-linemen in non-padded practices, so this roster battle won't begin in earnest until training camp. Here, we made the call to keep Roberts, a 2022 sixth-rounder out of Division-II Northwest Missouri State, over Anderson, who failed to impress last year before suffering a season-ending torn pec. The Patriots can wait until Week 3 to decide on Ekuale, who was hit with a two-game suspension this week.
LINEBACKER
In: Matthew Judon, Ja'Whaun Bentley, Raekwon McMillan, Josh Uche, Mack Wilson, Cameron McGrone, Ronnie Perkins
Out: Anfernee Jennings, Jahlani Tavai, Harvey Langi
Plenty of intrigue in this group, which underwent an offseason overhaul. With Judon and Bentley the only two returning starters, the Patriots likely will task young players like McMillan, Uche, Wilson, McGrone and Perkins with prominent roles. One young 'backer, Jennings, gets the boot here after spending all of last season on injured reserve. We left both off, but don't be surprised if Tavai or Langi sticks for special teams purposes.
CORNERBACK
In: Jalen Mills, Malcolm Butler, Terrance Mitchell, Jonathan Jones, Jack Jones, Justin Bethel
PUP: Marcus Jones
Out: Joejuan Williams, Myles Bryant, Shaun Wade
Spring practices revealed no favorites in this wide-open roster battle, with nearly every Patriots cornerback seeing action with the first-team defense. Mills, Butler, Mitchell and intriguing rookie Jack Jones all should be in the mix for starting jobs on the outside, though it wouldn't be a shock if Butler or Mitchell fails to even crack the roster based on the modest guarantees in their respective contracts. Marcus Jones, who wore a red non-contact jersey in minicamp as he works his way back from double shoulder surgery, could start the season on PUP. Bryant, who struggled down the stretch last season, and Wade would be prime practice squad candidates. And if the Patriots are eyeing ways to create salary cap space, Jonathan Jones could be a surprise cut candidate, as doing so would clear $5.7 million off their books.
SAFETY
In: Devin McCourty, Adrian Phillips, Kyle Dugger, Jabrill Peppers
Out: Joshuah Bledsoe
The Patriots seem to like Bledsoe, but there's just no room for the 2021 sixth-rounder in one of their deepest position groups.
SPECIALISTS
In: K Nick Folk, P Jake Bailey, LS Joe Cardona, ST Matthew Slater, ST Cody Davis, ST Brenden Schooler
Out: K Tristan Vizcaino, P Jake Julien, LS Ross Reiter
New England has entered every season since 2004 with at least one undrafted rookie on its roster. Here, that's Schooler, a college safety and wide receiver who worked closely with Slater and Davis in minicamp. Fans might not appreciate it, but with core special teamers like Brandon King, Brandon Bolden and Gunner Olszewski now gone, and Slater and Davis both among the oldest players on the roster, the Patriots need to replenish their pool of kick/punt coverage guys. We're not anticipating any surprises in the team's three specialist battles.
