Patriots Mailbag: What Needs To Change For New England Offense?

As New England wraps up a week on the road at the University of Arizona, it’s time to empty another mailbag of Patriots questions. What’s been on your mind as the Patriots prepare to take on Josh McDaniels and the Las Vegas Raiders this Sunday?

@ElliotCohen2
Does Matt Patricia have any staying power as the offensive coordinator? I realize Mac Jones is still developing but 14 screens is outrageous. If the offense is going to compete, he needs a couple opportunities to throw down the field.
I wrote about the Patriots’ uber-conservative game plan against Arizona earlier this week. On one hand, relying on shorter, quicker passes made sense given their persistent blocking problems and the fact that they were down their top two receivers (Jakobi Meyers and DeVante Parker), and screen passes also are a good way to neuter a defense that blitzes as often as the Cardinals do.

But Patricia went way overboard with it. Mac Jones attempted a career-high 12 screens, per Pro Football Focus, plus another that was wiped out by a penalty, and those produced an average of just 4.8 yards per play. On non-screen passes, he averaged 7.7 yards per attempt, including two 30-plus-yard completions down the seam to tight end Hunter Henry.

Early this season, the Patriots were employing a bombs-away approach that didn’t play to Jones’ strength and was resulting in way too many turnovers. Lately, they’ve done a complete 180, calling more screen passes than any team in football. Just look at the numbers: In his three starts before his high ankle sprain, the Patriots ran screen passes on just 6.3% of Jones’ dropbacks. Since Week 8 — Jones’ first full game back — that number has shot up to 21.9%, the highest rate of any starting quarterback during that span.

The ideal solution for the Patriots’ offense seemingly would be to find a viable middle ground between those extremes, but Patricia hasn’t shown he possesses the offensive creativity or nuance to strike that balance. Which brings us back to your original question: Will Patricia remain in his role as offensive play-caller beyond this season?

I certainly don’t think he should. New England’s offense has regressed so sharply under his stewardship that Bill Belichick has to realize he miscalculated. Taking a longtime defensive coordinator and asking him to not just call the offense, but also coach the offensive line on top of that was a bold experiment that simply did not work out.

If Belichick wants to keep Patricia on staff in 2023, fine, but he needs to bring in a capable, experienced offensive coach to take over play-calling duties and not risk wasting another vital year in Jones’ development. Bill O’Brien still seems like the most logical candidate, especially since he’s reportedly eyeing a return to the NFL.

A report Thursday from NBC Sports Boston’s Tom E. Curran, though, suggested Belichick hasn’t yet decided whether to boot out Patricia and make a leadership change on offense. If the offense shows real signs of life over these final four games, Curran said on WEEI’s “Merloni, Fauria & Mego,” there’s a chance Patricia keeps his job, though that possible outcome “could face pushback from ownership.”

“I think everyting is TBD,” he said.

@Shawn_Norton19
Who is likely to start at RB? Is Damien Harris back? Will it be Strong? Will it be Kevin Harris? How long is Rhomandre out for?
TBD. It seems highly unlikely Rhamondre Stevenson will be able to play Sunday since he hasn’t practiced all week. He’s recovering from an ankle injury that knocked him out of the Arizona game. Stevenson quickly has developed into one of the NFL’s best all-around running backs, so losing him hurts.

There’s a chance Damien Harris could return this week. He appeared to be a game-time decision against the Cardinals and has participated in both practices in Arizona, albeit in a limited capacity. This has been an injury-riddled season for Harris, but he’s still a very good early-down back when healthy. I would expect him to play the lion’s share of snaps Sunday if he’s able to go.

Harris doesn’t possess Stevenson’s versatility, though, so either Kevin Harris or Pierre Strong will need to play a real role against the Raiders unless Stevenson miraculously recovers in time. Harris was Stevenson’s initial replacement last week, with Strong not seeing the field on offense until the second half. Strong wound up having the more productive night, though, finishing with a team-high 90 yards from scrimmage on seven touches. Those included a 44-yard run down the left sideline, a 19-yard carry that put the game away and a 16-yard reception on the Patriots’ most productive screen pass of the game.

Strong is more of a fit for the third-down back profile than Kevin Harris is, so he might see the most playing time of the two rookies if Damien Harris is healthy enough to handle the majority of early-down reps. But both of them proved Monday that they are at least capable of producing when called upon, which has to be an encouraging development for the Patriots. Strong and Kevin Harris had been zeros offensively over the first 13 weeks, combining for just 9 yards on five carries.

The Patriots also have practice squadder J.J. Taylor as another depth option.

Why Mac Jones Isn’t Fretting Patriots’ Key Offensive Injuries

Dec 15, 2022

@ldbreeded
Number one position to address and should it be in FA or through draft?
Offensive tackle, and both. That position has been a major problem spot this season, and the Patriots have not planned well for the future there, either.

The only tackles they currently have under contract for next season are Trent Brown, Yodny Cajuste and Andrew Stueber. Brown’s health again has limited him this season, and the Patriots can get out of the final year of his contract with relative ease if they choose to do so. Cajuste has started just five games since he was drafted in the third round in 2019, with Conor McDermott getting the nod over him last week. Stueber, a 2022 seventh-round pick, is a complete mystery after suffering a season-ending injury before his first practice.

The Patriots are projected to have the fourth-most salary cap space in the NFL this offseason. They should invest a sizable portion of that in a proven veteran tackle and also select one early in the 2023 NFL Draft. Adding another in the middle rounds also wouldn’t hurt.

It’s still baffling that New England waited until Round 7 to draft a tackle this year given how inconsistent and injury-prone Brown and Isaiah Wynn have been throughout their careers. The Patriots’ lack of quality depth at that key position has kneecapped their offense.

The Patriots will need Brown — who said he’s finally shaken the flu bug he battled for the last few weeks — and either McDermott or Cajuste to hold up against stud pass rushers Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones if they hope to have any offensive success this Sunday.

@jburke616
Been super impressed with Marcus Jones playing defensive back. I know he’s been getting attention playing special teams and offense but just wanted to get your thoughts on this. Thanks !
I agree. Jones hasn’t had a huge role on defense this season, basically only playing when Jalen Mills, Jonathan Jones or Jack Jones is unavailable. But he’s held up well in coverage. According to Pro Football Focus, he’s allowed just five receptions on 14 targets for 88 yards and no touchdowns with one interception. He has not been called for any penalties, and opposing QBs have a passer rating of 28.3 when targeting him. It also was telling that the Patriots trusted him to match up against Cardinals star DeAndre Hopkins while Mills and Jack Jones both were sidelined last week.

It hasn’t been perfect — Marquise Brown beat Jones for what should have been a key fourth-down conversion but dropped the pass — but the third-round rookie is emerging as a true three-phase weapon for the Patriots. He’s the first NFL player since Deion Sanders to record an interception, a receiving touchdown and a punt/kick return touchdown in the same season.

With Jack Jones not practicing Wednesday and Thursday as he recovers from a knee injury, it’s safe to expect another busy day for Marcus Jones this Sunday.