Could Patriots Realistically Pursue Lamar Jackson This Offseason?

In all likelihood, Mac Jones will be back as the Patriots’ top quarterback in 2023. But if Bill Belichick, whom Jones reportedly ticked off during the season, wants to make an upgrade, could he make a run at Lamar Jackson if he becomes available?

In theory, yes, but New England fans probably shouldn’t get their hopes up. And you could argue that Jackson wouldn’t even be worth the risk, given his injury history, what it would cost to get him and the increasing evidence that his own teammates believe he’s a quitter.

Jackson’s future in Baltimore is uncertain. He’s scheduled to become a free agent this offseason, and the drama surrounding his decision to not play through a knee injury from Week 14 onward culminated in Jackson not traveling to Cincinnati, where the Ravens suffered a 24-17 wild-card loss to the Bengals on Sunday night. The war of words between Harbaugh, Jackson and his teammates continued after the game, with running back J.K. Dobbins saying the Ravens would’ve won if Jackson decided to play. Jackson seemingly offered his own take in an Instagram post on Monday morning.

Reporters and players-turned-talking heads like Michael Vick can say what they want, but all that really matters is how Jackson, his teammates and his coaches feel about the situation. And, at the very least, a once-dream marriage now appears to be on the rocks.

What happens now is anyone’s guess. NFL Media’s Ian Rapoport reported that Baltimore remains committed to Jackson and plans to offer him a long-term contract extension during the offseason. But others are convinced the Ravens will franchise-tag Jackson with the intention of trading him elsewhere. Dan Orlovsky already is calling on the Atlanta Falcons to swing a trade for the 2019 NFL MVP, who still is just 26 years old.

No matter which way you slice it, it’s hard to envision the Patriots entering a possible Lamar Jackson sweepstakes.

If Jackson hits free agency, New England’s path toward acquiring him would be straightforward. But would Belichick really break the bank for a quarterback whose run-heavy playstyle predictably has produced mounting injuries and unreliability in the postseason? Perhaps if Robert Kraft steps in and pulls rank, something last week’s unprecedented statement suggests he now is willing to do, but the Patriots giving a huge contract to a non-pocket quarterback nevertheless seems unlikely.

However, the Ravens would be beyond foolish to allow Jackson to reach the open market. If Baltimore decides to move on from the 2018 first-round pick (who was selected one pick after the Patriots drafted Sony Michel), it almost certainly will opt for a tag-and-trade. (Over the Cap currently projects franchise tags for quarterbacks to be worth roughly $32.5 million this offseason.)

In that scenario, the Ravens would need to maximize the return for Jackson who, while flawed, is a true game-changer when healthy. Some desperate team probably would gladly pay through the nose for Jackson. But the Patriots, as one of the Ravens’ top AFC rivals, likely would need to pay even more. There’s no way that Baltimore would give Jackson to New England unless Belichick presents an offer it can’t refuse.

At a minimum, the Patriots probably would need to trade multiple first-round picks, plus some mid-rounders. Whether the Ravens would want Jones in the deal is something only they know. And even if they would want Jones, the sophomore quarterback might only carry the value of a second-round pick after his rough sophomore season.

Would trading Jones, a first-round pick (maybe two) and some additional picks be worth it for the Patriots? Many fans probably would love it, but Belichick likely would view it as bad business, especially with Jones having two years left on his rookie contract. The Patriots also would need to completely change their entire offense to fit Jackson’s unique skill set. As we learned this season, Belichick’s greatness has its limits, including leading the overhaul of an offensive system.

A Jackson-Patriots trade is fun to think about, and there’s no denying he’d make New England better in 2023. If you were playing franchise mode in “Madden,” there would be a realistic path toward bringing Jackson to Foxboro.

But this is the real world, and the idea of Jackson playing quarterback in New England is pure fantasy.