Don’t Overthink It: Why Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes Due For Super Bowl Glory

With Super Bowl Sunday nearly upon us, let’s examine three bets to make for the big game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles.

Let’s start on the moneyline.

(All betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbook)

Chiefs moneyline (+105)
This just comes down to trust for both quarterback and head coach. Patrick Mahomes has taken this league by storm and already has a Hall of Fame resume. Mahomes is a Super Bowl champion, newly minted two-time MVP, five-time Pro Bowler and has broken multiple league passing records. From a legacy standpoint, Mahomes needs this win. If he loses, that would be his second Super Bowl loss and the narrative creeps in that he can’t capitalize on these opportunities. If he wins, it’s another pelt on the wall in chasing Tom Brady’s greatness. The same could be said for Chiefs head coach Andy Reid. He has collected so many accolades but only one Super Bowl. If he can win this game, it further cements his legacy as well. I want to be on the right side of history so give me the Chiefs.

Under 51 (-110)
Both teams come into this game with their defenses rolling. The Philadelphia Eagles are historically great with 78 sacks on the season, the third-most by any team in NFL history. The Eagles are also the first team in NFL history to have four players with 10-plus sacks in a season. The Chiefs’ defense seemingly has peaked at the right time, ranking just outside the top 10 in total defense during the regular season. However, in the playoffs, they have risen to the occasion and played well. Kansas City has not only forced turnovers, but it’s pressured the QB as well. My gut tells me this is an invigorating game that comes down to the final whistle. This is a coin-flip game, and I don’t see either team scoring in 30s. Although it’s a risky bet to fade two of the highest-scoring offenses in the league, I will still lean on the momentum of both defenses, and the tension of the bright lights of the moment and bet the under.

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Mahomes to win MVP (+120)
My final bet for the Super Bowl is on Mahomes, the man who will bring it all home for the Chiefs if they pull this off. I understand all the love for the Eagles and that’s why they are the favorite in the game. I understand that if the Eagles win it’s likely because Jalen Hurts has a big game with his dual-threat ability, and that’s why he is the favorite to win the MVP. But my understanding doesn’t blind me to the value of betting on Reid, Mahomes and the underdog Chiefs in this spot. Ultimately, I’m going to put my money on the proven commodity. I think Hurts is capable in this big spot, but I’ve never seen it. I know Mahomes is capable because I’ve seen him do it before.