Patriots-Steelers Picks: Why We’re Taking Historically-Low Under
Pittsburgh is a 6-point home favorite against New England
The NFL regular season is set to kick off in Week 14, so let’s examine three bets to make for the “Thursday Night Football” matchup between the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers.
We’ll start with the historically-low point total. (Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and listed on NESNBets.com live odds page.)
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Under 30 total points (+110)
Only three games in NFL history have opened with lower totals than this matchup. The lowest of the low was back in 1993 when both the Patriots-Indianapolis Colts and Chicago Bears-Detroit Lions games opened at 28 points. Although this Week 14 game didn’t break the record, the result will likely live up to the low-scoring hype. Last week the Patriots were unable to score any points despite making a switch to Baily Zappe. Meanwhile, the Steelers are having a quarterback conundrum of their own. Second-year QB Kenny Pickett was finally starting to play better but injured his ankle in Week 13 against the Arizona Cardinals. Pittsburgh turned to veteran signal-caller Mitch Trubisky, who was predictably unable to manufacture any offense as the Steelers fell to the lowly Cardinals, 24-10. Therefore, in a battle of two great defenses and two inept offenses, I’ll take the Under.
Patriots +6 (-110)
It’s risky business betting on the Patriots to do anything right these days, but ultimately this is a bet against Pittsburgh as much as it is for New England. Last week, I cashed a Cardinals +6 ticket against the Steelers simply because of that mentality. Even with a healthy Kenny Pickett, I didn’t believe the Steelers were a touchdown better than any team, including the bad ones like Arizona. Now with Trubisky at the helm, this Steelers offense is worse. I have no idea how the Patriots will score points, and it could be a field goal clinic, but I know the Patriots defense will keep it close.
Mitch Trubisky to throw interception (-140)
Just close your eyes and say it out loud: a low-scoring, defense-dominated game between two storied franchises with defensive-minded head coaches and two horrendous QBs. Now open your eyes. You envisioned some interceptions being thrown right? Yep, me too. From a schematic standpoint, the Patriots don’t trust Zappe enough for him to grip it and rip it all over the field. However, Trubisky is a veteran QB and has more weapons at his disposal than Zappe does, so he’ll be prone to take more chances downfield. Enough said. Let’s not overthink this.
