Patriots Have To Regret Jakobi Meyers-JuJu Smith-Schuster Swap

When the Patriots visit the Las Vegas Raiders this Sunday, Mac Jones will look across the field and see the one that got away.

Jakobi Meyers was New England’s steadiest and most productive pass-catcher in 2020, 2021 and 2022. He wasn’t an elite-level playmaker, but he ran good routes, got open and performed in big spots, serving as Jones’ go-to guy on third downs and other gotta-have-it situations.

But when Meyers hit free agency for the first time this past offseason, Bill Belichick went looking for an upgrade. He let his leading wideout walk and handed a comparable contract to JuJu Smith-Schuster, who had higher upside but far more volatility than his reliable homegrown predecessor. Meyers signed with the Raiders, reuniting with former Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.

Five weeks into the season, that de facto 1-for-1 swap looks like an enormous roster-building blunder.

Meyers is on pace for career highs in all three receiving categories as Vegas’ No. 2 behind All-Pro Davante Adams, and he just caught his third touchdown pass of the season in Monday night’s win over the Green Bay Packers.

Smith-Schuster, meanwhile, has been one of the least productive starting-caliber receivers in the entire NFL. His 86 receiving yards through five games are tied for 140th in the league. Six other current Patriots pass-catchers have more.

Among the 68 NFL wideouts with at least 20 targets this season, Smith-Schuster ranks 66th in yards per reception (6.1) and 67th in yards per target (3.4). In the last three weeks, he caught one pass for 5 yards against the New York Jets, one pass for 14 yards against the Dallas Cowboys and three passes for 6 yards in 2 1/2 quarters against the New Orleans Saints before leaving the game with a concussion.

Here’s how the pair’s numbers stack up entering this week’s Patriots-Raiders matchup:

JuJu Smith-Schuster
193 snaps (58% when active)
25 targets
14 catches
86 yards
No touchdowns
Yards per catch: 6.1
Yards per target: 3.4
First downs/touchdowns: four

Jakobi Meyers
240 snaps (90% when active)
36 targets
25 catches
274 yards
Three touchdowns
Yards per catch: 11.0
Yards per target: 7.6
First downs/touchdowns: 17

Meyers is lapping Smith-Schuster in every category — and that’s despite missing one game with an injury and playing another with a rookie backup quarterback (Aiden O’Connell, who started in place of Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 4). He nearly matched Smith-Schuster’s total receiving output in each of his other three appearances, notching 81 yards in Week 1, 85 in Week 2 and 75 in Week 5.

It is worth noting here that there was a valid case for making this switch. Meyers was a very good player for the Patriots, but he had a ceiling. He wasn’t a true No. 1 receiver, and New England’s passing game always was going to be limited if he was the one carrying it.

Smith-Schuster had a stronger track record of high-end production — he had two seasons with more catches than Meyers had ever recorded, three seasons with more yards and three seasons with more touchdowns — and had been markedly better at generating yards after the catch. Smith-Schuster ranked in the top 15 in that stat in four of his first five full seasons.

But that explosiveness is gone. Smith-Schuster still is a young player at just 26 years old, but the burst he showed as recently as last season (when he topped 900 yards for the Kansas City Chiefs) has vanished, reportedly a result of the knee injury he suffered in the 2022 AFC Championship Game. His chemistry with Jones — one of Meyers’ greatest strengths — has not developed.

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Former Patriots receiver Julian Edelman called out Belichick for this failure this week, saying he’s “still a little shook” over the team’s decision to let Meyers go. Fellow New England great Devin McCourty also criticized the move at the time.

“I didn’t get that,” Edelman said Monday on FOX Sports’ “The Herd with Colin Cowherd.” “… He could separate a lot. He could run routes. He was tough in the run game. He would go in and block the force. And that’s what you preach as a New England receiver: get open, catch the ball and block in the run game.

“Those are the three things that you hear all the time. This receiver group (the Patriots) have, it just seems like they’re struggling to create separation. Regardless of the reason, they haven’t been able to separate.”

The Patriots’ other wideouts are struggling to get open, too — as a unit, they entered this past weekend ranked last in the NFL in average separation when targeted, per Next Gen Stats — but the downgrade from Meyers to Smith-Schuster has been massive. It’s a major reason why New England’s offense looks lifeless, along with poor offensive line play (especially from the right tackle position, which Belichick failed to adequately stock this offseason) and Jones’ recent penchant for back-breaking turnovers.

Coming off back-to-back blowout losses, New England enters this week’s matchup with the Raiders ranked dead last in several offensive categories, including points per game (11.0).